Corruption seen as bigger risk to Mongolian democracy than Chinese, Russian influence

SEOUL, South Korea — Mongolia’s democracy is under strain after the ouster of Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene, who is accused of corruption.

Mr. Oyun-Erdene resigned and the country’s ruling coalition collapsed after a June 3 nonconfidence vote by the legislature.

He warned that his ouster “could lead the public to lose faith in parliamentary rule and potentially put our democratic parliamentary system at risk of collapse.”

Democracy in Mongolia, which sits between authoritarian Russia and Communist China, has proven resilient so far, weathering frequent political crises since being established in 1990, with four coalition governments.

Mongolian experts say the bigger threat is corruption, a persistent issue in the fledgling democracy.

Mr. Oyun-Erdene, then seen as a star member of a new generation of politicians, took office as premier in 2021 and won reelection in 2024, vowing to crush a culture of graft that has antagonized the country’s youth. He won some plaudits for tackling corrupt officials, but ironically, fell prey to charges of corruption himself.

Careless social media posts by his son’s fiancee showcased the kind of lavish lifestyle — a Harvard education, a Mercedes car, helicopter rides and luxury products — that the son of a man on a civil servant’s salary should be unable to afford.

That ignited youth in the capital. Anti-corruption protests, and a petition demanding Mr. Oyun-Erdene’s removal, kicked off in Ulaanbaatar in May and continued for weeks.

The protests detonated a political flare-up. The ruling coalition government cracked after Mr. Oyun-Erdene’s party, the socialist democratic Mongolian People’s Party, expelled its junior partner, the Democratic Party, for supporting the protesters.

“The collapse of the government and failure of the system to produce a prime minister worthy of the job is a setback,” said Denny Roy, who watches the region from the East-West Center for Security in Honolulu. “There is reason to hope that [the protests] will send a message to future politicians, that the political culture is now less tolerant of corruption and demands greater transparency.”

NGO Transparency International ranks Mongolia low for corruption: It is in 114th place out of 180 nations in its Corruption Perceptions Index. A 2002 coal theft case, which saw illegal shipments crossing the border into China, may have led to national losses of a staggering $11 billion to $12 billion.

The World Bank estimates that 27% of Mongolia’s 3.5 million population lives below the poverty line. Mining industries, which make up more than 80% of Mongolia’s exports, have enabled a fortunate elite to accumulate massive wealth. However, it comes with related corruption among officials and environmental degradation.

Mongolia has rich coal, copper and gold seams, some of which international mining concerns that have partnered with Mongolian interests are exploiting. Mongolia also has deposits of valuable elements used in metallurgy and munitions and petrochemical production.

Despite the corruption concerns, the protesters weren’t violent, and the authorities responded following democratic principles. That led some to question Mr. Oyune-Erdene’s warnings — and related jitters in global media.

“A diverse group of people toppling the government is a democratic movement,” said Bolor Lkhaajav, a U.S.-based Mongolian researcher, who noted that the protests lured individuals angry with both corruption and environmental issues. “There is nothing to argue with about that.”

The legislature’s no-confidence vote on June 3 opened a 30-day window for Mongolia to choose a new prime minister.

Mr. Oyun-Erdene, who had formerly vowed to step down if the MPP-Democratic Party coalition broke apart, bowed to the vote. He is remaining as caretaker premier until a successor is nominated by the president and voted on by the legislature. Power in the country is split among the legislature, known as the State Great Khural, the prime minister and the president.

Mongolia overthrew communism in 1989, adopted a democratic constitution in 1992, and has continued to make constitutional tweaks in the years since.

Mongolia is a global partner of NATO and deployed small troop contingents to the U.S.-led military campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq.

At the same time, it has maintained cordial relations with neighboring Moscow and Beijing.

In 2024, the diplomatically nimble Mr. Oyun-Erdene held meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and with Vice President Kamala Harris, and hailed Chinese-Mongolian relations.

Yet, even compared to other nations in East Asia, Mongolia’s export sector is massively dependent upon China. For imports, it depends heavily upon both Russia and China.

Some warn that Mongolia is vulnerable.

“If I was Mongolian, I would worry about eventually being absorbed by China,” Mr. Roy said. “The People’s Republic of China represents a long history of digesting smaller nations on China’s periphery — such as the South China, the Yellow Sea and the China-India border.”

Not all agree. Given that China already has massive trade leverage over the vast but sparsely populated country, Ms. Lkhaajav did not see any reason to fear.

“Mongolia is small [in population] compared to Russia and China, but is an independent state,” she said. “That does not mean they are not trying to gain influence and economic advantage, but it is more about balancing geopolitical spheres with both countries … I don’t see any direct impact on Mongolian democracy.”

The major risk is internal, she said. “If you asked me what the major issue facing Mongolia is, I would say corruption,” she said.