OPINION:
While much of the world’s attention remains fixed on the Middle East and the grinding conflict in Ukraine, the most consequential frontier for American foreign policy remains the Pacific. Nowhere is this clearer than in Northeast Asia, where the fate of American alliances with South Korea and Japan will determine whether the region remains free, prosperous and stable or slips into the orbit of an assertive, authoritarian China.
South Korea has been through a tumultuous six months, but on Tuesday, after a failed martial law declaration, an impeachment and three acting presidents, South Koreans voted in a new leader. Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party won the presidency by a fair enough margin, defeating Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party. The election itself, after months of political chaos, revealed South Korea’s democratic resilience but also exposed societal rifts.
Why should Americans care?
South Korea is a key player in regional and global stability. It is a major exporter of semiconductors, hosts Camp Humphreys, the largest overseas U.S. military base, and remains a paragon of modernization. South Korea impacts the world significantly through the force of its industry and economy and the power of its cultural exports, such as K-pop, beauty products, drama films and media.
Most important, however, South Korea is at the U.S.-China crossroads, with strong defense ties to Washington and economic ties to Beijing. Add to this the ever-present threat from nuclear-armed North Korea, and it’s clear South Korea is a geopolitical canary in the coal mine.
U.S. alliances with South Korea and Japan have long supported a rules-based order in Asia, enabling economic miracles and peaceful societies. Now, these alliances are under strain. Conservative leadership in Japan is losing ground to the political left, and the conservative bloc in South Korea has fractured, making it harder for pro-U.S. forces to unite.
If the U.S. loses partners in Seoul or Tokyo and China pushes aggressively, the Pacific balance of power from New Zealand to the Bering Strait could shift dramatically. The left in South Korea and Japan favors economic engagement with China and is less committed to U.S. security guarantees. If Beijing tilts these democracies away from Washington, American influence in Asia could unravel.
Western media label Mr. Lee Jae an outspoken liberal, but for now, his rhetoric follows the narrative of centrist pragmatism. He supports universal basic income yet defends free trade. He sees the need for constructive China ties but insists the U.S. is South Korea’s key ally.
On North Korea, Mr. Lee plans to return to dialogue over confrontation, suggesting a possible lack of political, historical and ideological clarity. He gives a taste of the managerial addictions characteristic of the globalist left when he calls North Korea a problem to manage, not a destiny to fulfill. On China, Mr. Lee pledged to reset ties with South Korea’s largest trading partner, but during his campaign, he toned down his rhetoric to appeal to centrists. He criticized his predecessor’s “unnecessarily antagonistic” approach to Beijing but avoided overt pro-China stances. He offered a nutty, noncommittal response when asked whether he would stand with Taiwan should China attack.
Mr. Lee calls the U.S.-South Korea alliance “essential,” yet he warns against putting “all our eggs in one basket.” Mr. Lee’s approach will likely irritate the Trump administration, but President Trump will make every effort to protect this relationship, which is core to the region’s geopolitics.
Mr. Lee launches his presidency already beset by serious challenges. Chinese interference accusations mount, and Mr. Lee’s legal troubles from his mayoral and gubernatorial terms could threaten his tenure. These vulnerabilities will play out amid South Korea’s intense domestic politics and the enduring specter of deep-ranging fraud in recent elections. Impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol’s ill-fated martial law gambit was an effort to expose election fraud.
South Koreans hope this election ends the chaos, but the U.S. must remain vigilant. If China drives a wedge between Seoul and Washington or Mr. Lee is forced to choose sides in a crisis, the consequences will reverberate across the Pacific. The fate of American alliances, democracy’s resilience and Asia’s power balance hinge on what happens in Seoul and Tokyo. The stakes are high.
• Frank Kaufmann is president of The Settlement Project and author of “Woke Ideology Critique and Counter Proposal.”
Please read our comment policy before commenting.