A version of this story appeared in the daily Threat Status newsletter from The Washington Times. Click here to receive Threat Status delivered directly to your inbox each weekday.
OPINION:
President Trump’s decision to launch kinetic strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities on the heels of Israel’s extraordinarily successful military operations against the Islamic republic’s leadership, nuclear sites and military marked a turning point in a decades-old shadow war between Iran and its two archenemies.
A nuclear threshold state, Iran found itself in the crosshairs of the U.S. and Israel over its extensive ballistic missile capability, proxy terrorist network and defiant refusal to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency and negotiate on its nuclear program in good faith with the Trump administration.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, seriously miscalculated if he thought the comprehensive strategic partnership treaty that Iran signed with Russia earlier this year (or its 25-year strategic cooperation agreement signed with China in 2021) might have deterred Israel or the U.S. from attacking after the 60 days Mr. Trump granted for nuclear negotiations.
Having destroyed Iran’s air defenses a year ago and decimated Hezbollah and Hamas, Israel left Iran few options for retaliation beyond what remains of its supply of drones and ballistic missiles.
A central tenet of Iran’s national security strategy has always been to avoid drawing the U.S. into a war, which would risk the end of the Islamic republic’s unpopular, dictatorial regime.
Rather than take on the U.S. directly, Iran has been more than willing to fight to the last Palestinian, Yemeni, Lebanese or Iraqi proxy, resulting in thousands of U.S. casualties, both civilians and soldiers.
That’s why it’s so important, especially at this time, for the U.S. intelligence community to track Iran’s long-standing relationship with al Qaeda.
More than a decade ago, Iran granted sanctuary to terrorist Sayf al-’Adl, who took over the leadership of al Qaeda in 2022 after a U.S. drone strike killed Ayman al-Zawahri in Afghanistan.
Mr. al-’Adl, an Egyptian Islamic extremist and member of the al Qaeda Shura Council, reportedly trained some of the 9/11 hijackers. He was deeply involved in overseeing al Qaeda’s development of weapons of mass destruction, directed Osama bin Laden’s personal security and developed a close partnership with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Mr. al-’Adl is under indictment in the U.S. in connection with the 1998 terrorist attacks on the U.S. embassies in Tanzania and Kenya. From his base in Iran, he has reportedly directed al Qaeda operations in Somalia, Syria and Yemen while traveling back and forth between Iran and Afghanistan.
Beyond supplying its proxy terrorist network with training, financing and weapons, Iran has an extensive history of collaboration with al Qaeda, including after the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Iran deliberately enabled al Qaeda terrorists to flow into Iraq from Syria to target U.S. forces and, in a ruthless bit of Machiavellian strategy, Iraq’s civilian Shiite population, which had no choice but to rely on Iran’s proxy militant group, Jaish al-Mahdi, for support and security, thereby strengthening Iran’s projection of power in the country.
In 2012, the U.S. designated as a terrorist group the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security for its logistical and material support to al Qaeda and its Iraqi affiliate.
While war rages in the Middle East and the U.S. intelligence community focuses on other high priorities, such as China, Russia and North Korea, terrorism remains the national security threat with the shortest fuse.
Since the disastrous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, neither the U.S. military nor the CIA has an official presence there.
Just as it was before 9/11, Afghanistan is a failed terrorist state that provides sanctuary for the al Qaeda and Islamic State group terrorists who are relentlessly focused on planning the next barbaric attack on our homeland.
Iran would like nothing more than to hide its hand while al Qaeda attacks our country and forces the Trump administration to devote scarce national resources to dealing with the aftermath of a mass-casualty terrorist attack.
The U.S. intelligence community must, therefore, continue to be highly vigilant about collecting intelligence and preempting terrorist threats while working closely with trusted foreign government liaison partners. If there’s one thing we’ve learned over the past 20-plus years, it’s that terrorism does not respect national boundaries.
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard will need to ensure that the intelligence community is effectively sharing information and working together tactically as force multipliers for respective clandestine operations.
For U.S. civilians in the homeland and overseas, remember: If you see something, say something to the state, local and federal law enforcement officials dedicated to keeping us safe.
• Daniel N. Hoffman is a retired clandestine services officer and former chief of station with the Central Intelligence Agency. His combined 30 years of government service included high-level overseas and domestic positions at the CIA. He has been a Fox News contributor since May 2018. He can be reached at danielhoffman@yahoo.com.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.