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OPINION:
Operation Rising Lion has marked a decisive shift in the regional balance of power. In less than a week, Israeli airstrikes crippled Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, degraded its air defenses, neutralized Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps leadership and dismantled key propaganda networks.
Moreover, the campaign has severely limited Iran’s ability to threaten Israel, support proxies in Syria and Iraq and destabilize the region. Yet its impact extends beyond military objectives. It creates a rare diplomatic opening.
This disruption presents the U.S., under the leadership of President Trump, with the chance to advance a big, beautiful Iran deal, a bold and enforceable framework centered on three interconnected pillars: regional security, economic realignment and civil society empowerment. Brokered through Iraq and supported by Gulf partners and Israel, such a deal has the potential to usher in an era of stability that has eluded the region for decades.
Iraq’s strategic role
No country is better positioned than Iraq to mediate this accord. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s government maintains strong ties with the U.S. and Iran. Baghdad’s cultural and economic integration with Tehran allows it to engage the regime without the optics of Western coercion. Unlike secretive channels in Doha or Geneva, Iraq offers legitimacy, transparency and regional ownership.
As negotiations mature through Iraqi mediation, Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, would be more inclined to support the deal. With clear assurances that Iran’s destabilizing behavior is being curbed, Saudi Arabia could take the final steps toward normalization with Israel. That breakthrough, which has long been viewed as the linchpin to regional peace, would become a realistic outcome, not a diplomatic fantasy.
A strategic vision built on leverage, not concessions
This deal is not a rebranded version of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. It does not rely on trust or symbolic gestures. It is rooted in the current balance of power, leveraging Iranian weakness, Israeli deterrence and America’s unique position to lead. It is pragmatic and enforceable, aligning perfectly with Mr. Trump’s instincts: It is security-first, economically beneficial and driven by real outcomes.
Pillar one: Security
The first pillar focuses on verifiable demilitarization. Iran must permanently halt uranium enrichment, dismantle military-grade nuclear sites and allow unrestricted International Atomic Energy Agency inspections. Its long-range missile systems and air defense infrastructure cannot be rebuilt beyond civil defense standards. In exchange, the U.S. would offer security assurances and formalize nonaggression principles via a trilateral mechanism with Iraq. Snap-back sanctions would be automatically triggered for violations, with Iraqi intelligence helping monitor and enforce compliance.
Pillar two: Economic development
The second pillar centers on formalizing Iran’s energy trade and dismantling its black market economy. Iran must end the use of ghost fleets and proxy-run oil smuggling operations networks that the U.S. Treasury estimates generate more than $3 billion annually in illicit revenue. These shadow economies fuel the IRGC and regional militias and empower rival actors such as China and Russia. In exchange, the U.S. would ease energy sanctions and support infrastructure modernization under strict conditions that ensure revenue benefits the Iranian public. U.S. and allied investment would tie Iran’s recovery to continued compliance, not ideological expansion.
Pillar three: Civil society
No Iran deal can succeed without empowering those within the country who seek reform. This third pillar establishes a U.S.-Iraq-United Nations fund to support civil society: independent journalism, legal reform, public administration and local governance. These institutions have historically resisted authoritarian control and foreign manipulation.
The 2009 Green Movement and the 2022 “Woman, Life, Freedom” uprising underscore the Iranian people’s desire for change. Polling from the Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran shows 84% of Iranians favor a secular state over religious authoritarianism. A 2024 Middle East Institute survey found that 68% support normalization with the U.S.
Far from rejecting diplomacy, the Iranian public is ready for a future rooted in dignity, openness and opportunity. This civil society framework gives Iranians a stake in the deal’s success and gives future leadership a nonviolent path to maintain it, even in the event of regime change.
The U.S. ambassador: Strategic anchor in Baghdad
At the heart of this vision is the U.S. ambassador in Baghdad. More than a figurehead, the ambassador must orchestrate this strategy by coordinating trilateral diplomacy, liaising with Gulf partners and overseeing enforcement mechanisms. Embedded in the region, the ambassador has access to real-time intelligence and regional atmospherics unfiltered by bureaucracy and can rapidly respond to compliance issues or emerging opportunities.
Working alongside Mr. al-Sudani, the ambassador can establish a permanent working group to implement the deal’s pillars and ensure sustainability. In this pivotal moment, the ambassador to Iraq may be the most consequential diplomatic post in the region.
A strategic opening that must not be wasted
Israel’s strikes have not just degraded Iran’s capabilities but also have shattered the regime’s illusion of invincibility. This tactical success creates a rare diplomatic window that aligns with American interests, regional aspirations and public sentiment within Iran. The big, beautiful Iran deal is not a theoretical ideal; it is a practical, enforceable framework with regional buy-in, strategic depth and a vision for long-term peace. Iraq provides the venue, the U.S. provides the leverage, and the Iranian people provide the will. If embraced, this deal can end the current conflict and reshape the future of the Middle East.
• James R. Sisco is the founder and CEO of ENODO Global.
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