President Trump has not only stopped but also reversed the Biden border surge, according to early Census Bureau data that suggests hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants have dropped out of the U.S. workforce and departed the country.
Preliminary calculations by the Center for Immigration Studies, using the Census Bureau’s monthly survey, show that the number of immigrants in the labor force dropped by about 600,000 from January through May and the overall number of immigrants in the U.S. fell by 957,000.
“It looks like there’s been a Trump effect on the number of illegal immigrants in the country, based on the best data that we have,” said Steven A. Camarota, the lead author of the study.
He said the U.S. now has 14.8 million illegal immigrants, 1 million fewer than his estimates in January when President Biden transferred power to Mr. Trump.
Mr. Trump is on a full-court press to usher illegal immigrants out of the country.
Deportation officers have been unshackled from Biden-era restrictions and told to increase arrests to unprecedented levels. The Department of Homeland Security is urging illegal immigrants to “self-deport” before they are caught.
Meanwhile, the border has been shut down to illegal immigration to a degree not previously seen in modern times, so newcomers aren’t replacing those who leave.
Agriculture businesses have complained that their largely illegal immigrant workforce isn’t showing up, threatening America’s farming industry. Business groups have warned of broader workforce issues.
However, Mr. Camarota said the declining number of illegal immigrants presents an opportunity for those competing for jobs.
“I think that this is good news, particularly for less-educated Americans who are likely to see a rise in wages,” he said. “Maybe it will even be helpful in dragging some of these non-college-educated men who are working age back into the labor force.”
The past four years have brought an upheaval in the illegal immigrant population.
At the start of 2021, as Mr. Trump transferred power to Mr. Biden, the estimated illegal immigrant population was 10.2 million. That grew steadily to 15.8 million in January before slipping to 14.8 million, Mr. Camarota said.
CIS data comes from the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey, a monthly collection of data used to calculate unemployment rates. The survey doesn’t ask about legal status but tracks place of birth and citizenship, which allows demographers to estimate illegal immigrant numbers.
Mr. Camarota said the recent months of data show a decline of 1 million people in the foreign-born population, entirely among those who haven’t naturalized. That is consistent with a major decline in illegal immigration, he said.
The data also shows a drop of slightly more than 1 million noncitizens from Latin America. That population largely overlaps with the illegal immigrant population.
Mr. Camarota said that was strong evidence of the Trump effect.
He offered some caveats. For example, immigrants have become more reluctant to answer census questionnaires or may not disclose that they are foreign-born.
Social Security this week released its latest projections, including a deep dive into demographics.
It said the U.S. has come through a period with startlingly high illegal immigration and temporary visitors. It groups those populations together.
Social Security figured that about 690,000 arrived in 2020, though many also left, leaving a net increase of about 275,000.
Arrivals were estimated at more than 2 million by 2022, with 1.5 million staying, 2.7 million in 2023, with 1.9 million staying, and 2.6 million last year, with 1.8 million staying.
Social Security assumed little change this year, projecting 2 million will arrive this year and 1.2 million will stay.
The agency figured that the number of arrivals would drop to about 1.4 million in 2026 and beyond, with an annual net of about 500,000.
• Stephen Dinan can be reached at sdinan@washingtontimes.com.
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