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OPINION:
We often forget how small Israel is. It’s about the size of New Jersey and half of its land is desert. At one point, Israel is only nine miles wide.
The Israelis, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, are well aware that their nation could not survive a successful nuclear strike by Iran. Perhaps that is the reason the media was full of rumors in May about a possible Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities. Will Israel strike Iran soon and commence a huge war in the Middle East?
President Trump is, inexplicably, trying to negotiate another nuclear weapons deal with Iran, which is so far refusing to end its uranium-enrichment program. The Israelis aren’t likely to strike while these negotiations continue.
Our intelligence community continues to insist that the Iranians are not building nuclear weapons and that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has not authorized their construction, as he supposedly suspended the program in 2003. That conclusion conflicts with two other intelligence reports.
A new Austrian intelligence report reads, in part: “In order to assert and enforce its regional political power ambitions, the Islamic Republic of Iran is striving for comprehensive rearmament, with nuclear weapons to make the regime immune to attack and to expand and consolidate its dominance in the Middle East and beyond.”
Even the International Atomic Energy Agency — the United Nations’ usually purblind nuclear watchdog — found that Iran has been producing enough highly enriched uranium to produce one nuclear bomb per month, despite Mr. Trump’s negotiations with Tehran.
Our intelligence community seems to be quibbling instead of delivering the hard facts.
Mr. Trump has said that he urged Mr. Netanyahu to not disrupt his negotiations with a strike on Iran. He said he told Mr. Netanyahu that it wasn’t appropriate to attack Iran’s nuclear weapons program now because the U.S. and Iran are close to a negotiated solution. “That could change at any moment,” he added, “but right now I think they want to make a deal.”
Some in the media have argued that Mr. Netanyahu is providing Mr. Trump with leverage over the Iranians, but this is wrong because Iran, with its nuclear facilities hidden or deeply buried, is confident that it can withstand an Israeli attack. Moreover, Iran’s economy is sustained by China purchasing 90% of its oil exports. Mr. Trump has just paused new sanctions against Iran. What happened to his “maximum pressure” campaign? In the negotiations, Iran is stalling for time.
Mr. Trump cannot be so naïve as to believe that Tehran will agree to an unlimited — anywhere, anytime — inspection of its suspected nuclear weapons development facilities. And without that, any agreement with Tehran will be a sham.
The Israelis will act if they are convinced by their intelligence services — which are certainly better than ours — that Iran will soon deploy nuclear weapons.
Mr. Netanyahu will not strike Iran without American permission or at least acquiescence. He will not risk a breach of his relationship with Mr. Trump, who is the best friend Israel has ever had in the White House. Nevertheless, at some point Mr. Netanyahu will have to order a strike on Iran’s nuclear sites and Mr. Trump will not object.
The problem for Mr. Netanyahu’s forces is that while they can penetrate Iran’s air defenses, they probably cannot destroy all of Iran’s nuclear facilities. Several are believed to be well-hidden and buried too deeply for even the most potent U.S. penetrator bombs to reach. But Israel cannot risk Iranian deployment of nuclear weapons.
Iran is weaker now because its primary terrorist surrogates, Hamas and Hezbollah, have been enormously damaged by Israel. Its principal oil export facilities on Kharg Island would be a logical target for a secondary Israeli strike. But when — not if — Israel strikes Iran, it will be friendless with the exception of the United States.
Europe and the Arab nations will not help Israel if such a war breaks out. Those nations seem to be siding with the Palestinians. In May, Spain, Norway and Ireland recognized a “Palestinian” state. France may do so this month. Saudi Arabia, which greatly fears Iran, has said that the establishment of a Palestinian state is the only way it would make peace with Israel.
A war with Iran will certainly erupt if Israel strikes at Iran’s nuclear sites. Israel’s missile defenses will — again — be stretched to deal with more missiles and rockets from Hamas and Hezbollah. The Iranian Air Force will try to strike Israel and the Iranian navy — which has about 20 diesel-electric submarines — would attack Israeli and probably U.S. ships around the Persian Gulf and in the Indian Ocean.
Iran would be wise to not strike at U.S. ships or aircraft, but the ayatollahs have never been that smart. If U.S. ships or air bases were attacked, we should strike back massively — not in proportion to Iran’s attack, but proportional to our military strength, with everything short of nuclear weapons. There can be no peace in the Middle East or anywhere else while the ayatollahs rule in Tehran.
• Jed Babbin is a national security and foreign affairs columnist for The Washington Times and a contributing editor for The American Spectator.
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