OPINION:
Somewhere out there, in the hallowed halls of political history, a 2005 Barack Obama is raising an eyebrow at Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Why? Because 2025 AOC might just be out-Obamafying Obama.
While young Barry O was still mastering the art of not being a political footnote, AOC is setting up shop in the “Top 5 Democratic Hopefuls for 2028” club a full three years before the next presidential election. Not only do major polls have her fourth already but the bookies are also on board. Polymarket has her with a 17% chance of clinching the nomination, second only to the California governor, Gavin Newsom.
If that’s not impressive enough, she’s boasting star power Barack could only dream of back in his junior senator days. AOC has drawn massive crowds nationwide, even in small towns that wouldn’t usually open the door to a New York liberal. In Plattsburgh, N.Y., a district so red it probably votes against ketchup, 10% of the entire population showed up just to hear her speak.
However, the biggest key, as always, is money, and AOC is a magnet. With $15.4 million funneled into her campaign war chest this year alone, she’s crushing it. For context, that’s nearly double what House Speaker Mike Johnson has cobbled together.
Almost all her donations are from individual contributors, which means her roots run deep. While most politicians cozy up to Super PACs and Wall Street bigwigs, AOC gets her coin grassroots style, with an average donation of just $17. It’s Sen. Bernie Sander’s playbook meets millennial flair.
Mr. Obama was lucky to have a big moment — his 2004 speech at the Democratic National Convention — that put him on the map. AOC doesn’t need that. Republicans have done all the hard work for her. When Ms. Ocasio-Cortez shocked the world and upset a veteran congressman in 2018, Republican talkers decided to key on her democratic socialist status as they sought to make her the face of the Democratic Party.
Unluckily for them, it worked. Now she’s the most powerful and beloved Democrat out there.
But there’s one big problem: The party is mostly hated in America right now. A recent Wall Street Journal poll came with a dismal headline: “Democrats Get Lowest Rating From Voters in 35 Years.”
“The new survey finds that 63% of voters hold an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party,” The Journal reports, “the highest share in Journal polls dating to 1990 and 30 percentage points higher than the 33% who hold a favorable view.”
That’s not good. Pair that with AOC’s liberal policies, and there’s a strong chance Middle America might clutch their pearls and head for a candidate less associated with TikTok trends. But then, members of the Democratic Party — which ate it hard with its last candidate, Kamala Harris — are desperate to find anyone who can win. Right now, AOC is right at the top of that list.
Yet the old formula — espouse hard-left ideology to win the primaries, then tack back to the center for the general election — won’t work this time. And AOC doesn’t even have all liberals on board: Just days after AOC voted to support funding for Israel’s Iron Dome defense system, her Bronx office was vandalized with “Ocasio-Cortez funds genocide” in red paint. Moving to the center just won’t cut it in 2024.
What’s fascinating is how AOC’s trajectory reminds us that political campaigning isn’t just about policy these days; it’s about energy, storytelling and that undefinable “electromagnetic pull.” The same thing that ignited Mr. Obama in 2008 is now powering Ms. Ocasio-Cortez’s growing legion of volunteers and donors.
But here’s the cosmic balance sheet she’ll have to reconcile by 2028. On the one hand, there’s her unshakable appeal to young voters and social-media-savvy activists. On the other hand, her ideological past may make her a sitting duck among Rust Belt voters who want moderation with a side of pragmatism.
Plus, for Democrats desperately clawing at credibility on kitchen-table issues like the economy and inflation, AOC must show she’s bringing more than Instagram Live to the political arena.
Navigating between firebrand and potentially viable president is no easy feat, but if anyone has the gall (and the memes) to try, it’s AOC. Whether she rises like Obama 2.0 or gets memed into eternity in political purgatory, one thing’s for sure: She’s a force to be reckoned with.
• Joseph Curl covered the White House and politics for a decade for The Washington Times. He can be reached at josephcurl@gmail.com and on Twitter @josephcurl.
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