OPINION:
Now that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act has become law, the Republican Party is faced with a few uncomfortable facts.
First, it is now clear that most Republicans, or at least most Republican primary voters, care a lot more about Mr. Trump and his preferences than they do about a smaller federal government that spends less.
Second, Republican voters seem entirely at ease with the general lack of a strategy regarding federal taxing and spending.
Whatever else one might think about the reconciliation legislation, it is impossible to sell it as a strategic set of policies designed to help Republicans realign the American voting population.
Finally, very, very few members of Congress are willing to vote against Mr. Trump’s preferences, regardless of any position they may take before any particular vote.
The administration’s hegemony over political power probably gave enough confidence to announce a few days ago that Jeffrey Epstein didn’t have a list of customers, even though Vice President J.D. Vance, Attorney General Pam Bondi and Donald J. Trump Jr. all had referenced said list. The administration also concluded that Epstein wasn’t suicided in his cell. At approximately the same time, the administration decided that, despite campaign promises, Ukraine needed to continue to be a fiefdom supported by U.S. taxpayers.
The remarkable thing about the past few weeks taken together is, of course, that Mr. Trump’s voters accepted most or all of it without murmur. Tax breaks for New Yorkers and Californians? Absolutely. Another few trillion added to the debt? Sign me up. More cash for the endless war in Ukraine? You bet. No list of customers? If you say so.
All this raises the question of what the Republicans will be after Mr. Trump ceases to be president in 42 months. The challenging thing about a personality-driven movement is that momentum and discipline become difficult to sustain when the personality is no longer present.
Without some grounding in something other than or in addition to Mr. Trump, it seems very likely that the Republicans will wander for a considerable period after his presidency. Make no mistake: Even though he won’t be on the ballot in 2028, the next presidential election will be about Mr. Trump and his legacy. As a practical matter, that means Republicans will not likely be able to address fundamental questions about the path forward until at least 2032.
It might be useful to think about the last great Republican commander in chief. President Reagan was focused on winning the Cold War (which he did) and improving the economy (which he did). For whatever reason, though, the next 12 years of Republican administrations were characterized by mostly anodyne failures of the well-meaning but mostly ineffective Bush family.
It is usually very difficult to replace a strong leader, and it is not uncommon for bad things to happen in the transition from a strong horse to a weaker one. As Louis XV, who was an exceptionally strong leader, liked to point out, “Apres moi, le deluge” (“After me, the flood”).
It may very well be that voters will wander in the wake of Mr. Trump. Personalities, especially powerful ones, are impossible to duplicate, and popularity is rarely transferable.
The Republican Party must be conscious of this as it heads toward whatever reckoning might be in store after Mr. Trump finishes his second term.
• Michael McKenna is a contributing editor at The Washington Times. He served in the Reagan and Trump administrations.
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