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OPINION:
During a Feb. 24 telephone call from Russian leader Vladimir Putin to Chinese President Xi Jinping, Mr. Xi reiterated China’s “no limits” partnership with Russia. Mr. Putin provided an update on the interactions between Russia and the U.S. on the war in Ukraine. This was their second telephone exchange this year, and both emphasized the “durability and long-term nature of the alliance … good neighbors that cannot be moved apart.”
This Sino-Russian alliance would have been unimaginable in 1969, when the Soviet Union (Russia) had 42 divisions — more than 1 million troops — on the border with China, with indications that Moscow was considering a nuclear strike on Chinese nuclear facilities. That March, Chinese and Soviet forces clashed on Zhenbao Island in the Ussuri River, with both sides taking casualties. The conflict ended in two weeks, averting an escalation of hostilities with the potential use of nuclear weapons.
Indeed, the current Sino-Russian alliance would have been unimaginable to China’s former paramount leader, Deng Xiaoping, who, during his January 1979 visit to the U.S., agreed to expand cooperation in collecting and sharing intelligence on the Soviet Union.
Working primarily with China, the Reagan administration succeeded in defeating the Soviets in Afghanistan when the last Soviet aircraft left Bagram Airfield on Feb. 3, 1989. On Dec. 25, 1991, Mikhail Gorbachev resigned as president of the Soviet Union. This ended the Cold War, with Ukraine and Belarus declaring independence and the Baltic states seeking international recognition as sovereign states.
China’s fraught relationship with Russia goes back to 1858 and the Treaty of Aigun and the Treaty of Peking in 1860 when China was compelled, after a humiliating defeat in the second opium war, to cede to an imperial Russia large land areas in China’s northwest region. This area now includes Vladivostok, allowing Russia to have a military outpost and naval base on the Pacific Ocean.
Despite this history, Mr. Xi proclaimed a “no limits” partnership with Mr. Putin and the Russian Federation. China is buying crude oil and gas at a reasonable price, with trade between the two countries reaching record highs. China is Russia’s largest trading partner, buying a variety of Russian exports at discount prices, given the array of sanctions imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
Although China denies providing weapons to Russia, it reportedly provides dual-use critical components, estimated at $300 million monthly, enabling Russia to produce munitions, tanks, armored vehicles, missiles and drones. Former Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that about 70% of the machine tools and 90% of the microelectronics Russia imports come from China. Trade between China and Russia reached a record high of $240 billion in 2023, an increase of 64% since 2021 before Russia invaded Ukraine.
China’s allied relationship with Russia, which invaded a sovereign and independent Ukraine, has adversely affected China’s credibility with the European Union and other countries. Foreign direct investment in China fell $168 billion in 2024. International companies are leaving China, and Chinese firms are moving money abroad for better returns.
Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine continues, with significant casualties on both sides. The devastation to Ukraine is catastrophic, with millions of people displaced. Negotiations with Russia and the U.S. are underway. The concern is that a fair settlement to this war of aggression must include Ukraine and compensation for the lives lost and the social and economic devastation Russia continues to inflict on Ukraine.
Indeed, it was Mr. Putin who said the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (Soviet Union) was “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.” Therefore, the concern arises that if Mr. Putin prevails in Ukraine, he will not stop. That means Poland, Finland and the Baltic states and territories of the former Soviet Union, including all countries in the former Warsaw Pact, are vulnerable.
Mr. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine could be the beginning of his effort to re-create the Russian empire. Although it’s in China’s interest to see an end to the war in Ukraine, it is not in China’s interest to maintain a close allied relationship with a revanchist Russian Federation. The impact on China’s economy and international credibility will be profound. Without China’s support, Russia will find it difficult, if not impossible, to persist with its invasion of Ukraine.
• Joseph R. DeTrani is a former director of East Asia operations at the CIA, a former special envoy for six-party negotiations with North Korea (2003-2006) and a former director of the National Counterproliferation Center. He is the author of “The North Korean Threat: Intelligence and Diplomacy — a Personal Memoir.”
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