Putin’s imperial playbook leaves no room for mystery

OPINION:

Winston Churchill called Russia “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.” Is the same true of Vladimir Putin, who has ruled Russia with an increasingly tight fist since 1999?

I don’t think so.

Early in his tenure, he waged a ferocious war against separatists in Chechnya. Russian forces razed Grozny, the capital, and killed as many as 100,000 Chechens in this small Muslim land first conquered by Russian imperialists in the Caucasian War of the 19th century.

President Clinton threatened that Russia would “pay a heavy price” for its brutality, but no bill collectors ever came knocking on Mr. Putin’s door.

President George W. Bush met Mr. Putin in 2001 and found him “very straightforward and trustworthy.” That appraisal did not age well.

Over the years, Mr. Putin shaped his public image with displays of manly strength: riding horses bare-chested, playing hockey against professionals (whom he, of course, bested) and giving martial arts demonstrations.

Meanwhile, a long list of his enemies, rivals and critics suffered untimely deaths. A few examples:

• In 2006, Alexander Litvinenko. The former Russian spy who had accused the Kremlin of corruption took tea at a London hotel. The tea had been spiked with polonium-210, a radioactive substance. He died three weeks later.

• Also in 2006, Anna Politkovskaya. The investigative reporter covering Russian atrocities in Chechnya was shot dead in the elevator of her Moscow apartment house.

• In 2009, Sergei Magnitsky. The young lawyer who uncovered Russian government corruption while working for investor Bill Browder died after 358 days in a Moscow prison. He hadn’t been charged with any crime.

• In 2015, Boris Nemtsov. The prominent Russian politician who advocated for democracy and human rights was fatally shot near the Kremlin.

• In 2020, Alexei Navalny. The popular Russian opposition leader was poisoned by Novichok, a nerve agent. His supporters ferried him to Germany, where he received medical treatment and recovered. He returned to Russia, was immediately imprisoned and died — or was killed — in 2024.

Shall I go on?

I’ve long argued that Mr. Putin regards himself as a czar whose mission is to restore the Russian empire.

In 2008, his troops invaded Georgia, an independent nation-state that had been a Russian and, later, Soviet possession. A 16-day war ended with Russian troops occupying the Georgian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

In 2009, President Obama decided to forgive and forget this aggression. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton presented Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (who still holds that job) with a red button labeled “reset” — the word misspelled in Russian. That elicited laughter all around.

In 2014, Mr. Putin invaded and annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and initiated a separatist insurgency in the Donbas region. Russia was subsequently expelled from the Group of Eight and sanctioned. Mr. Putin endured these punishments with equanimity.

During the first Trump administration, Mr. Putin invaded no other countries.

In August 2021, President Biden capitulated to the Taliban in Afghanistan. Not just coincidently, Comrade (as the Soviets used to say), six months later, Mr. Putin’s tanks rolled toward Kyiv.

His goal was and remains the annihilation of Ukraine’s independence and even its cultural identity.

In part, I think, he is outraged that most Ukrainians regard themselves as a separate nationality rather than as “Little Russians,” are intent on establishing democracy, and want to ally with the West rather than take orders from the Kremlin.

What’s most important is that Mr. Putin wants more Russian lands and more Russian subjects. During this war, he has abducted an estimated 20,000 Ukrainian children, whom he is brainwashing to identify as Russians.

Russia’s population was estimated at 144 million in 2023. Ukraine would add another 38 million, including a significant number with combat experience who, with a Russian bayonet pressed against their backs, may have no option other than to march on NATO nations.

An ideology underlies all this. Alexander Dugin has been called Mr. Putin’s “brain” and his “Rasputin.” The political philosopher regards Russia as a nation of Eurasia, a civilization he sees as mortally conflicting with the West.

Mr. Dugin objects to Americans promoting their values — including freedom, individual rights, tolerance and self-determination — as international norms and “universal laws.”

He believes strategic alliances with other anti-Western Eurasian regimes are key to diminishing American power and global preeminence. He wrote, “The American empire should be destroyed.”

This is the basis on which Mr. Putin has made common cause with Chinese communists, Iranian jihadis and the dynastic dictator of North Korea. The members of this axis all seek to conquer neighboring lands, displace American global leadership, and establish a new and despotic international order.

Though recent polls indicate that more than 80% of Americans have negative opinions of Mr. Putin, there are exceptions.

American actor Steven Seagal has taken Russian citizenship. So has French actor Gerard Depardieu.

Mr. Putin has established a “Welcome to Russia” program and signed a decree in August allowing foreign citizens to apply for temporary residency in the country if they oppose the “destructive neoliberal ideological agenda” of their homelands and share “traditional Russian spiritual and moral values.”

Russian authorities say 4,676 Westerners, including 227 U.S. citizens, have immigrated to Russia since 2022.

I’ll conclude with this: As President Trump attempts to negotiate a halt to Russia’s war against Ukraine, it’s not unreasonable for him to show respect for Mr. Putin (as he has been) if he believes that will make Mr. Putin more likely to agree to concessions.

It’s imperative that Mr. Trump harbor no illusions about Mr. Putin — about his character, ambitions, ideology and his abiding hatred for American greatness.

• Clifford D. May is the founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a columnist for the Washington Times and host of the “Foreign Policy” podcast.