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CAIRO — A series of high-stakes meetings is expected to reshape regional politics and global alliances, with Saudi Arabia emerging as a key player in mediating Arab and other international disputes.
President Trump’s return to the White House has left the conservative kingdom with a severe case of policy whiplash. Regarding trade, energy and even golf, Mr. Trump is far more open than President Biden in dealing with Saudi leaders. On some significant security issues, including the question of relations with Israel and the political fate of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, Washington and Riyadh appear to be on a collision course.
A senior political consultant in Riyadh told The Washington Times that these meetings signal a fundamental shift in global power dynamics. Jeddah is rumored to be the site of a proposed meeting between Mr. Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, marking what many see as a turning point in Russo-American relations. A mini-Arab summit in Riyadh last week focused on the desperate situation in Gaza and Mr. Trump’s stunning proposal for an American takeover of the Palestinian enclave.
“These discussions are about reordering international relations, with Saudi Arabia emerging as a key regional mediator,” the consultant said. With Islamism subdued and Arab socialism nearly extinct, “soon, it will just be a matter of everyone having their price,” a suggestion that political settlements in the region will increasingly come down to strategic negotiations.
Arab states are focused on their own Gaza reconstruction plan, which does not endorse Mr. Trump’s idea of evicting the Gaza Palestinians to other Arab countries. An emergency Arab League summit in Cairo on March 4 will serve as a political platform for Arab nations to unite against any forced displacement of Palestinians.
For decades, Riyadh has maintained that normalization with Israel must follow a just resolution of the Palestinian issue, with Gaza’s 2.2 million residents remaining on their ancestral land. Arab officials have consistently rejected proposals that would resettle Palestinians from Gaza elsewhere. While some in Washington see Mr. Trump’s proposals as a bold challenge to the status quo, Arab leaders dismiss them as impractical and politically unfeasible.
Jordan, which has official ties with Israel and is among the most pro-American states in the Arab world, has rejected Mr. Trump’s idea, even after an Oval Office visit this month by King Abdullah II.
Initially planned as a limited gathering among three Arab states, the Riyadh meeting expanded to include the full membership of the Gulf Cooperation Council and key partners Egypt and Jordan. Officials say this expansion underscores a united Arab commitment to defending Palestinian sovereignty while pursuing a pragmatic approach to rebuilding Gaza.
Rebuilding Gaza
A Gulf-funded reconstruction plan for Gaza was at the core of Riyadh’s agenda. Gulf Cooperation Council fiscal sponsorship is expected to fund major infrastructure projects to rebuild the battered enclave after Israel’s 15-month war. In addition, Saudi officials, in coordination with Qatari, Egyptian and Emirati security agencies, are pressuring Hamas to reduce its control over Gaza in a maneuver dubbed “Tanahi.”
Former Israeli intelligence official Avi Melamed said the goal is not to eliminate Hamas, as Israel would like to do, but rather to have it step back temporarily, allowing reconstruction to proceed without forced displacement.
“This meeting is about logistics and financing — a practical blueprint to rebuild Gaza,” he said.
Although Mr. Trump’s relationship with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto Saudi ruler, has strengthened U.S.-Saudi ties, Mr. Melamed said, White House proposals regarding Gaza have created tensions.
The crown prince “isn’t operating in a vacuum. There’s a complex chain of decision-making in Saudi Arabia, and ultimately it comes down to strategic interests,” he said.
Saudi Arabia faces mounting domestic challenges.
With the crown prince’s modernizing “Vision 2030” deadline approaching, the kingdom is under pressure to deliver on large-scale infrastructure projects, manage costs and attract foreign investment to diversify the economy. High oil revenue is critical for funding these initiatives, yet Mr. Trump’s calls for lower oil prices threaten to disrupt Saudi Arabia’s economic planning.
“The Saudis know that their long-term agenda relies on high oil prices,” said Mr. Melamed, emphasizing that Saudi policymakers have worked to balance these pressures by cultivating relationships with China, Russia and other global actors.
Oil and strategy
Ali Bakir, a professor at Qatar University’s Ibn Khaldun Center for Humanities and Social Sciences, said pressuring the Saudis to lower oil prices ignores the kingdom’s broader strategy.
“Pressuring Riyadh to reduce oil prices overlooks the fact that high prices are central to Saudi Arabia’s strategic vision: funding economic transformation programs such as Vision 2030 and underpinning its broader geopolitical ambitions,” he said.
Mr. Bakir said Mr. Trump’s accusations that Saudi Arabia is worsening regional conflicts by refusing to cut oil prices fit into a broader effort to transform Middle East alliances and push for greater Arab diplomatic recognition of Israel.
“Such demands ignore the kingdom’s economic imperatives,” he explained, adding that high oil revenue is essential for immediate profits, financing long-term projects and maintaining Saudi influence.
Mr. Trump has accused Riyadh of fueling the Russia-Ukraine war by refusing to lower oil prices. He said lower prices would force Russia, a major energy exporter, to the bargaining table as its revenue dwindles. These opposing views reflect a broader divide: Mr. Trump sees high oil prices as a source of instability and a diplomatic bargaining chip, and Saudi leaders consider them the foundation of their long-term strategic vision.
Saudi Arabia’s focus on economic transformation is further highlighted by Neom, the $500 billion high-tech city designed as the centerpiece of the kingdom’s drive to modernize the economy, improve its worldwide image and diversify away from heavy reliance on energy exports. By contrast, estimates suggest that rebuilding Gaza will cost $30 billion to $40 billion and could take up to two decades. This disparity underscores Saudi Arabia’s challenge of balancing long-term investments with immediate humanitarian concerns.
Egypt, also a major recipient of U.S. aid and military supplies, has taken a firm stance against Palestinian displacement.
Egyptian officials have told Secretary of State Marco Rubio that their military rejects Mr. Trump’s plan to relocate Palestinians from Gaza. They warned that mass population movements could jeopardize the security of the Suez Canal and destabilize Sinai’s Bedouin tribes, many of whom are sympathetic to the Palestinian cause and some with ties to Islamist militant groups.
Egypt’s position is clear: It will accept a limited number of Palestinians on humanitarian grounds. In a strong signal, Egypt’s 3rd Field Army, which is responsible for security along the Gaza border, declared a state of high alert Wednesday, signaling readiness to counter any forced displacement efforts or unilateral Israeli actions.
Stark contrast
The emergency Arab League summit in Riyadh kicked off Friday and focused on securing financial commitments for Gaza’s reconstruction. The Cairo summit will be a broad political gathering to formally condemn any displacement plan.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, speaking alongside Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, reinforced Cairo’s position.
“We stressed that it was important for the international community to adopt and support a plan for reconstructing Gaza without displacing Palestinians — I repeat, without displacing Palestinians from their lands,” he said, urging full implementation of the Hamas-Israel three-phase ceasefire agreement, continued hostage and prisoner exchanges, and unimpeded humanitarian aid.
Egypt is developing a phased reconstruction blueprint: a 10- to 20-year period focusing on rebuilding followed by a longer-term strategy for establishing a permanent two-state solution. Although Hamas has signaled openness to a long-term truce, it remains unwilling to relinquish full political control. Qatar backs this stance, but Fatah and the Palestinian Authority are pushing for exclusive governance in Gaza.
Hossam Zaki, assistant secretary general of the League of Arab States, told Egypt’s ON television network that the summit aims to unite senior Arab leaders in a common stance. “We need a robust, top-level event that produces a unified Arab stance on the resettlement issue and the broader question of Palestinian rights,” he said.
As Arab leaders coordinated their response, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fueled outrage in Riyadh by suggesting that Saudi Arabia had ample land to resettle Palestinians.
Fatah spokesperson Hussein Hamayel dismissed the suggestion outright. He said, “Fatah will not accept any international or regional arrangements that seek to reshape the Palestinian landscape outside the framework of the PLO, the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people.”
A Saudi Shura Council member echoed this sentiment in the Okaz daily newspaper, arguing that U.S. foreign policy was enabling “the illegal occupation of sovereign land and the ethnic cleansing of its inhabitants.”
As the region convenes the back-to-back summits, the message from Arab leaders is clear: Any attempt to forcibly relocate Palestinians will be met with unified resistance. With Riyadh’s technical session focused on funding and logistics and Cairo’s summit dedicated to delivering a diplomatic rebuke to forced displacement, Arab states are aligning their positions to influence Washington and global policymakers.
Hesham Alghannam summed up the prevailing view: “Netanyahu’s suggestion that Saudi Arabia ‘make room for Gaza’ is not just impractical. It is a denial of Palestinian rights. Gaza’s people must remain in their homeland, with reconstruction efforts aimed at stability, not displacement.”
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