The asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, according to NASA data updated Tuesday.
The asteroid was previously assessed to have a 2.3% chance of hitting on Feb. 7 and a 1.2% chance of striking the planet last month.
Scientists at NASA’s Catalina Sky Survey in Arizona project a potential target area that includes a number of countries around and just north of the equator, such as the northern parts of South America, the northern portions of sub-Saharan Africa, India and parts of southeast Asia, according to Wired.
Direct impact would create a blast that likely would kill anyone at ground zero, then produce a wave that would hit people miles away.
“People within the local region would be at risk of serious injury,” Kathryn Kumamoto, head of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Planetary Defense Program, told The New York Times.
The asteroid is thought to be 130 to 300 feet based on its brightness, though NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope is working to narrow that range. If it entered Earth’s atmosphere and fell to the ground, it would hit at about 38,000 mph, NASA said.
By comparison, an asteroid 165 feet wide produced the Meteor Crater in Winslow, Arizona, which is a mile across, according to NASA.
The asteroid that hit Mexico and is widely believed to have killed off the dinosaurs 66 million years ago is estimated to have been 6-12 miles wide and left a crater 90 miles across.
The composition of the asteroid matters. An iron asteroid, for example, would be harder and likelier to weather entry into the atmosphere before punching into the Earth. A stone asteroid could explode before impact.
“The main comparison point we have for a stony asteroid impact of this magnitude is Tunguska,” Ms. Kumamoto said.
The Tunguska blast in 1908 exploded over Siberia, affecting an area 830 miles wide and toppling about 80 million trees, NASA said.
A hypothetical explosion of 2024 YR4 could be more or less harmful than that depending on where it occurs.
• Brad Matthews can be reached at bmatthews@washingtontimes.com.
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