Is the U.S. ready for an era of space warfare?

It has gone from science fiction to a matter of serious military planning in a remarkably short time.

Now, the notion of actual kinetic warfare in space — perhaps a Chinese attack on satellites to cripple the U.S. military as the precursor to an invasion of Taiwan — is fueling a high-stakes debate in national security circles over how to best protect valuable assets in orbit from adversaries with increasingly dangerous space capabilities.

One of the key conversations is whether the U.S. should pursue offensive weapons or restrict its space-based assets to defensive capabilities.

High-level national security sources say the intensifying discussion will be a key topic at the Spacepower 2025 conference this week in Orlando, Florida. The three-day gathering, organized by the Space Force Association, will bring together power players from the military and defense industry.

The Space Force, which has existed as its own military branch for less than six years, has been thrust into the center of major military and national security planning debates across virtually all domains.

Analysts predict that conflicts on Earth may begin in space. Enemies may assess that the best way to keep the U.S. military out of a fight is to eliminate much of its communications, logistics, surveillance and targeting infrastructure.

That means a 21st-century attack on satellites that could be difficult to predict and even more difficult to stop.

“It begins small. We don’t realize at first that we are under attack. When we do finally see it, things escalate quickly,” Tory Bruno, president and CEO of United Launch Alliance, wrote in a recent op-ed for The Washington Times in which he sketched out what a war in space could look like.

“The enemy will have prepared in secret. Initial maneuvers will appear routine. Suddenly, without warning, declaration or even threats, we lose communications over Taiwan and the Strait of Malacca,” he said. “We task our spy satellites to stare at these locations, but they are unresponsive. We pivot to our Space-Based Infrared System missile warning satellite constellation to look for any thermal heat signatures of activity, but these have just gone offline. Shortly after that, GPS over the Pacific region becomes spotty and intermittent.”

At the same time, Chinese forces would make a move on the island democracy of Taiwan or some other military target in the region. To guard against that, Mr. Bruno said, the Space Force and Pentagon, and its private industry partners, “must be able to conduct prolonged combat operations in orbit, moving assets to replace losses, relocating high-value satellites and coordinating and commanding offensive operations against threats — all in real time, with secure and uninterruptible surveillance, communications, command and control.”

Offensive weapons in space?

Replacing lost assets quickly is one part of a complex equation. Another is whether the U.S. puts offensive weapons in space, the kinds of assets that could theoretically take out Russian or Chinese satellites if necessary. It’s not clear whether America’s long-term military doctrine in space will embrace that approach.

“Now we have to say: Are we going to be defensive, offensive, or are we just going to put capability on orbit?” said Robert Lightfoot, president of Lockheed Martin Space.

“That’s the place where the U.S. is beginning to talk about. Are we going to have weapons or offensive capabilities in space and not just be defensive?” Mr. Lightfoot said during a recent exclusive interview on the “Threat Status” weekly podcast.

The 1967 Outer Space Treaty bans the use of weapons of mass destruction in orbit. Whether top U.S. adversaries are violating that agreement is a major question.

Russia is thought to be racing ahead with a program to field nuclear-armed anti-satellite weapons. A nuclear blast in space could destroy another nation’s satellites.

China is making its own strides.

China has invested heavily in building space weapons that can destroy or disrupt satellites. That would “incapacitate” U.S. communications, intelligence and missile warnings and undermine the military’s ability to conduct joint operations and project power, said a recent report from the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

The space weapons include three types of ground-based anti-satellite missiles, robots capable of grabbing and destroying satellites without causing debris, and electronic and directed energy anti-satellite weapons.

“While China has continued to actively pursue both offensive and defensive counterspace capabilities, the United States has refrained from developing an offensive space program and has dutifully sought to avoid actions that could be seen as ‘weaponizing space,’” the report says.

Golden Dome in focus

Despite Russian and Chinese advances, the Trump administration continues to argue that the U.S. remains the world’s leader in space capabilities. Its recent National Security Strategy made the case for more investment to retain an edge.

“The United States must at the same time invest in research to preserve and advance our advantage in cutting-edge military and dual-use technology, with emphasis on the domains where U.S. advantages are strongest,” the strategy said. “These include undersea, space, and nuclear, as well as others that will decide the future of military power, such as AI, quantum computing, and autonomous systems, plus the energy necessary to fuel these domains.”

One key piece of the administration’s broader national defense policy is the construction of the Golden Dome missile defense shield. The project is also expected to be a key topic of conversation at the Spacepower 2025 conference. Top military leaders who will play direct roles in the Golden Dome will attend, along with companies looking to secure lucrative missile defense contracts.

Speculation over the technology involved has been rampant for months, specifically regarding the extent to which it will be space-based or centered more on conventional ground-based missile interceptor systems.

Gen. Michael A. Guetlein, vice chief of space operations at the U.S. Space Force and the administration’s point man on the Golden Dome, offered clues during his weekend remarks at the Reagan National Defense Forum in California. He suggested broadly that the system will integrate existing ground-based missile defense assets as well as futuristic space-based assets, including potentially space-based missile interceptors.

He said the defense shield will be operational by mid-2028.

• Guy Taylor and Bill Gertz contributed to this report.