Trump stopped a nuclear ayatollah, but Iran still holds dangerous cards

OPINION:

Nothing is more dangerous than a nuclear ayatollah. That’s why President Trump did something about it. He deserves credit, and humanity deserves the victory. Although American attention has now shifted elsewhere, Iran still holds cards to play.

One of those cards is oil. The ayatollahs sit atop 12% of global oil reserves and export 91% of their oil output to China. Iranian oil accounts for 14% of China’s total oil imports. China recently imported another 4% of its oil from Iranian ally and Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, whose country holds 18% to 20% of global oil reserves.

Until Mr. Trump started seizing “ghost” tankers carrying Venezuelan crude last month, 80% of Venezuela’s output went to China. In other words, with Venezuelan oil now shut off, China’s dependency on Iranian oil can only increase.

Here’s the interesting part: A big portion of the Iranian oil sits beneath Iran’s Kurdish population, our natural allies on the ground there.

Reports indicate that Ilam Province alone, for example, has 17 billion barrels of oil and 27 billion cubic meters of recoverable gas. Kermanshah Province has roughly 692 million barrels of oil. Additional reserves of oil and gas lie beneath West Azerbaijan Province and Kurdistan Province. Those provinces also contain significant deposits of key minerals and important metals.

Of course, sanctions on Iranian oil exports are in place and have had some effect, but sanctions aren’t silver bullets, and they’re never the full answer. Tehran works tirelessly to circumvent them.

That means other economic levers must be identified. Even if they are not immediately apparent, they still exist, so rational nations must remain perceptive, ready and willing to pull them. Thirty years ago, China began doing just that with rare earths and now controls 90% of global rare earths processing.

Much to our strategic disadvantage, the United States now buys 70% of its processed rare earths from China.

Turning the energy table on China will not happen overnight, but when it does, it must begin somewhere. Maybe it already began in a small part last month with the American seizure of a sanctioned tanker full of Venezuelan oil. Maybe not. Wherever it begins, the prominent role of Iranian oil exports cannot be ignored. Shutting those down will surely include the application of more sanctions, and perhaps seizures too. To achieve an enduring effect, those measures must be complemented by the cultivation of partners inside Iran who share joint interests with the U.S.

Like the Kurds in Iran.

The overwhelming majority of them are organized across several important political organizations there and are in close friendship with Americans. In fact, many members of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran and the Freedom Party of Iranian Kurdistan entered Iraq and participated in sustained combat action against the Islamic State group. They are all closely aligned with American values.

Abdullah Mohtadi, for example, the secretary general of Komala Party, is strongly pro-American and has long promoted ethnic and religious coexistence in Iran, advocating for free and open elections and a federal and unified country. All these groups welcome bold, new dialogue with the U.S.

Such bold dialogue between the Trump team and Armenia and Azerbaijan recently produced the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, and the Kurds of Iran are open to something similar. The TRIPP extends across southern Armenia, links the Sunni communities of Turkey and Azerbaijan, provides security for Armenian Christians and successfully unites differing religious and ethnic groups and jurisdictions for the sake of peace and prosperity.

An analogous TRIPP across Iranian Kurdistan would help set the conditions for similar peace and prosperity while increasing the potential for access to the region’s energy resources and minerals.

An economic lever for one is an economic opportunity for someone else.

The last time Mr. Trump did something about Iran, he pulled a mighty military lever. We have novel diplomatic and economic levers available today. We need only summon the will to pull them.

• Gen. Ernest Audino is president of the CEO Business Alliance. He hosts “Frontlines Report,” America’s largest military radio talk show, and is a member of the Defense Advisory Panel at The Heritage Foundation. He previously served as district director for U.S. Rep. Michael Waltz, Florida Republican.