Predictions for 2026 (and some commentary)

OPINION:

In the famous words of Yogi Berra (or Niels Bohr): “It is tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Armed with that awareness, let me offer the following few predictions, none of which is intended to be used for either investment or gambling purposes.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average will close the year above 50,000. The price of oil will close the year below $60. Inflation will average … 3% in the coming year. Growth in the gross domestic product, which will probably average around 3% on an annualized basis in 2025, will be 4% in 2026.

The federal government will have a brief interruption in appropriated funds (usually called a “shutdown,” but as we have learned, about 80% of the government remains open during such shutdowns), probably in February. At the end of it, the Republicans will cave on the Affordable Care Act tax credits for premiums for pretty much everyone, even the well-off. The good news is that it will become apparent that Obamacare has devolved, as it was always destined to, into a payout for insurers at the expense of taxpayers.

With respect to the shutdown, the basis of whatever happens (minibus, omnibus, continuing resolution, etc.) will be the fiscal 2024 budget, which was, of course, President Biden’s final budget. Consequently, the federal deficit in fiscal 2026 will be about $1.8 trillion, just like it was in fiscal years 2025, 2024 and 2023.

The price of electricity is going to keep rising. Despite the increase in demand (with more on the horizon), the amount of nuclear, coal and natural gas generating capacity in the United States is about the same as it was in 2004. That’s probably fine in a system where demand is flat, but not for one where demand is growing. We are going to need to build more natural gas power plants fairly quickly.

The utility model will come under increasing pressure as interest groups and some elements of the federal government run an increasingly direct campaign directed at integrated utilities. Despite that, no data center will fail to come online because of a lack of electricity. In short, the process will work; the necessary power plants will be built in a timely fashion.

The Republican caucus in the House will fall below 218 members at some point in 2026. About 25 House Republicans have already made the decision to not come back to the House in 2027, and that number will grow, as it always does, over the Christmas break.

With respect to the 2026 elections, the Republicans will retain control of the House, but by a very thin margin. Although the redistricting wars will turn out to have been pointless, the Supreme Court’s rejection of majority-minority districts will upend numerous districts, most of them in states controlled by Republicans.

Moreover, the better-than-anticipated economic growth and early vibe from Democratic primaries suggest that the Democrats will have some persistent difficulties in persuading voters to toss them the keys to the car.

The University of Notre Dame, energized by a righteous anger at being excluded from this year’s playoff, will scythe through college football next year and win the championship. (Please don’t come at me on this, especially if you are a fan of Alabama, Oklahoma, James Madison or Tulane.)

The Buffalo Bills will win the Super Bowl eventually.

The New York Mets will continue to not win the World Series; my bet is that 2026 is the year of the Phillies (finally). My friend Bucky is convinced that the Washington football team will again become the Redskins; not sure that is right, but it sounds better than the Washington Commies.

Artificial intelligence was the big thing in 2025; robotics will be the big thing in 2026.

The communist regime in Beijing will try repeatedly to discourage Taiwan and its allies from defending Formosa. It not only fails, but it also winds up making the Quad alliance — the United States, Australia, Japan and India — even stronger.

Finally, in thinking about the new year, it’s worth remembering that Jesus pointed out the right way to organize your thoughts. “Do not be anxious about tomorrow. … The worries of the day are sufficient unto themselves.” I hope you and yours and the United States have a happy and prosperous new year.

• Michael McKenna is a contributing editor at The Washington Times.