PLA: War games practice for a Taiwan takeover

NEWS AND ANALYSIS:

China’s People’s Liberation Army finished its latest round of saber-rattling military exercises near Taiwan on Wednesday, prompting statements of concern from Japan and Australia.

However, the live-fire drills that included provocative rocket firings described in official statements as practice “decapitation” strikes drew silence from the Pentagon and the Indo-Pacific Command, despite major PLA threats to a key regional ally.

PLA spokesman Senior Capt. Li Xi said Wednesday the exercises called Justice Mission 2025 were successfully completed. The PLA will continue to “resolutely thwart the attempts of Taiwan independence separatists and external intervention,” he posted on X.

The drills involved record numbers of aircraft and large numbers of warships operating in seven zones encircling most of the island. Taiwan’s military reported detecting 207 Chinese PLA aircraft during two days of the exercises. The previous exercise record was 178 aircraft.

As many as 35 PLA navy warships took part, along with 29 coast guard vessels.

Along with the activities, the PLA issued several unusually blunt statements that characterized the exercises as a threat to forcibly annex the democratic-ruled island.

The exercises did not seek to close the island but instead framed it with military forces, the military posted on X.

“Joint patrols test the responsiveness of command networks, interdiction drills explore how ports and chokepoints could be sealed under duress, and long-range precision platforms simulate strikes against mobile ground targets,” the PLA posted.

Reports describing the drills as “encirclement”, “strangulation” and “coercion” were dramatic, the PLA said.

“However, the exercises are not an act or a bluff — they are a signal,” its statement read. “Reunification, in China’s view, is not a question of ‘if,’ but of ‘how’ and ‘when.’”

Reunification is Beijing’s term for resolving its decades-long dispute with Taiwan, an independent state never ruled by the mainland and divided between native Taiwanese and Nationalist forces that fled to the island during a civil war with the communists in 1949.

In Tokyo, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s administration said the drills increased regional tensions and prompted official government statements of concern to Beijing.

The Japanese government said it expects the Taiwan dispute to be resolved peacefully through dialogue.

“Peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait are important for the international community as a whole,” the statement read. “We will continue to monitor related developments with strong interests.”

China has targeted Japan with a large-scale propaganda campaign after Ms. Takaichi told parliament that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would pose a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan.

Australia’s government also voiced deep concerns to Beijing about the encirclement of Taiwan with PLA warships and the live firing of missiles and use of fighter jets for conducting simulated strikes.

“Australia strongly opposes any actions that increase the risk of accident, miscalculation or escalation,” the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade said Wednesday.

The department said differences between China and Taiwan should be managed through dialogue and not the use of force or coercion.

“Australia opposes any unilateral action to change the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. Peace and stability are in all our interests,” the statement said, noting that Australian officials raised the government’s concerns with Chinese counterparts.

Taiwan Defense Minister Wellington Koo said Tuesday that the provocative PLA actions threatened regional stability and civilian air traffic. The Taiwanese military “will respond calmly and safeguard our nation’s security and democracy,” he said, according to local media reports.

By contrast, the Pentagon and the Indo-Pacific Command declined to comment on the threatening war games.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in May during a meeting of defense officials in Singapore that “any attempt by Communist China to conquer Taiwan by force would result in devastating consequences for the Indo-Pacific and the world.”

“There’s no reason to sugar-coat it,” he said. “The threat China poses is real and it could be imminent.”

Since then, the Pentagon and the Indo-Pacific Command have scaled back rhetoric and comments on threats posed by China.

The change in official tone comes as President Trump is seeking to conclude a trade deal with China and arrange reciprocal state visits with Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2026.

The PLA described the war games as practice for “identification, warning and expulsion, strikes on hostile vessels, fleet air defense, and anti-submarine warfare from air and in the waters to the north and south of Taiwan.”

H-6 bombers conducted simulated precision attacks on targets in Taiwan, the military said.

A warship task force led by an amphibious assault ship and joined by destroyers, frigates and drones conducted joint drills that included rapid landing operations and the seizure of key ports in the waters to the east of Taiwan, the PLA said.

Long-range multiple rocket launchers fired 27 rockets into waters north and south of Taiwan. Ten landed in waters close to the island – ranges that analysts say were the closest live fire exercises to date.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry linked the drills to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan following the recent Trump administration announcement of an $11 billion package of arms for the Taiwan military.

Naval analyst: PLA planned missile strikes on U.S. homeland revealed

Andrew S. Erickson, a professor of strategy at the U.S. Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute, identified new Chinese missile threats to the American homeland revealed in the Pentagon’s latest annual China military power report.

“Arguably, one of the most significant revelations is that America’s homeland is not a sanctuary from either nuclear or conventional missiles,” Mr. Erickson stated on his website in analyzing the latest Pentagon study. “Per the report’s Fielded Conventional Strike graphic, China has deployed a conventional [intercontinental ballistic missile] capable of partially ranging America’s homeland.”

The latest report revealed that the People’s Liberation Army’s DF-27 is a deployed missile system with ICBM range. The missile can be armed with several payloads, including conventional or nuclear warheads, an anti-ship warhead and hypersonic glide vehicle.

“The report underscores that China has the world’s leading hypersonic missile arsenal,” Mr. Erickson stated. “It highlights land-attack and anti-ship missile families — including DF-17 and YJ-21 — as well as longer-range ballistic missile families (DF-21, DF-26, DF-27) whose reentry vehicles or glide payloads can maneuver at hypersonic speeds.”

The Pentagon report concludes that the PLA expects to be ready to fight and win a war on Taiwan by 2027 with three plans for victory. One scenarios is called “strategic decisive victory” — prevailing in a war against Taiwan with U.S. intervention at acceptable cost.

Nuclear and other strategic deterrent weapons also are being built up to offset American military advantages and “strategic deterrence and control” call for the PLA to manage escalation and dissuade opportunistic actions by others.

“This cogently explains why China has already pursued (successfully) the world’s most dramatic military buildup since World War II, why it continues to advance rapidly today, and why, under Xi, the aforementioned nuclear developments are a prioritized component thereof,” Mr. Erikson said.

Defense contractor on Chinese sanctions

China announced it is imposing sanctions on several American defense companies and their leaders on Dec. 26 in response to the latest U.S. arms sales package to Taiwan worth an estimated $11 billion.

The 20 companies sanctioned by China include Northrop Grumman Systems Corp., L3Harris Maritime Services, Boeing and several U.S. drone manufacturers.

Among the 10 senior U.S. executives sanctioned was Palmer Luckey, founder of Anduril Industries, who responded with holiday mirth.

Mr. Luckey stated on social media on Dec. 26: “Late last night, I received a final Christmas gift: official notification from the PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs that I, Palmer Luckey (Male), have been personally sanctioned as a dangerous actor.

“I want to thank my family, my team, and my Lord Jesus Christ for this award,” he stated. “Anduril has been sanctioned for a while now, as have many of my peers, but it means so much to finally have my non-existent Chinese assets seized and repurposed.”

Mr. Luckey also said the sanctions “also prohibit all Chinese nationals from engaging with me in any way, which should really clear up my social media feeds.”

‘Merry Christmas!’

China’s Foreign Ministry said it took the action because the latest arms sale to Taiwan violated policies governing U.S.-China relations, including three historical joint communiques.

However, one of those communiques issued in 1982 during the Regan administration includes an internal memo from President Reagan interpreting the communique’s view of arms sales as directly linked to threats against Taiwan.

“The U.S. willingness to reduce its arms sales to Taiwan is conditioned absolutely upon the continued commitment of China to the peaceful solution of the Taiwan-PRC differences,” Reagan said. “It should be clearly understood that the linkage between these two matters is a permanent imperative of U.S. foreign policy.”

• Contact Bill Gertz on X @BillGertz.