Embattled Taiwan president trapped between China pressure, impeachment threat at home

SEOUL, South Korea — Taiwan President Lai Ching-te is under pressure from all sides as Beijing on Monday launched massive military drills around the democratically governed island, days after the Taiwanese parliament voted to initiate impeachment moves.

Neither looks likely to deliver a fatal blow to Taiwan’s staunchly anti-Beijing president, but both complicate Mr. Lai’s job at a critical time for the island that China sees as a breakaway province that must eventually be reunited with the mainland.

China has been drilling its naval, air and missile forces ever closer to Taiwan since then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island in 2022.

The exercises and the reaction times and patterns of Taipei’s forces provide valuable data for China’s admirals and generals — a key element of what analysts see as China’s “green-to-red” strategy: The pre-positioning of forces under cover of exercises as a precursor to a live attack.

And while Taipei’s opposition looks unlikely to succeed in their gambit, they may set one historical precedent: no Taiwanese president has ever faced an impeachment process before.

Strangulation rehearsal

Senior Col. Shi Yi, spokesperson of China’s People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command, said, according to reports from China Monday, that drills were to be conducted in the Taiwan Strait and areas to the north, southwest, southeast and east of the island.

That essentially surrounds the island with deployments that could potentially establish a blockade or launch an all-around assault.

Col. Shi said sea-air combat readiness is being drilled to seize “comprehensive superiority” and blockade key ports.

A range of People’s Liberation Army assets — destroyers, frigates, fighters, bombers, drones and long-range rockets — were deployed to the north and southwest of the Taiwan Strait, while aerial drills were conducted east of the island.

The Eastern Theater command warned that live-fire activities would take place at five locations around the island on Tuesday.

Mainland media added detail.

Global Times, citing a Chinese security expert, said the “Justice Mission 2025” drills test “fire coverage,” “blockade,” “precision strike,” and leadership “decapitation.”

Taiwan pushed back.

“We strongly condemn [China’s] irrational provocations and oppose the PLA’s actions that undermine regional peace,” Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense shot back on X. “Rapid Response Exercises are underway, with forces on high alert to defend [Taiwan] and protect our people.”

The ministry accompanied its post with a graphic emblazoned with “Sovereignty, Democracy, Freedom.”

Experts warned the drills pose risks for Taiwan — and also civilian air and sea traffic.

“The PLA’s military exercises around Taiwan are so aggressive and dangerous because they are rehearsals *in situ* and take place in heavily used waters and airspace,” tweeted Euan Graham, who researches regional security at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

Political as well as military messages were implicit. Beijing’s maneuvers are “a stern warning against ’Taiwan independence’ separatist forces and external interference forces,” Col. Shi said, without explanation.

The first descriptor looks aimed at Mr. Lai, who, prior to winning office in 2024, was a high-profile promoter of independence.

He has ameliorated his position since taking power, but irks Beijing, which insists that democratic Taiwan — though, de facto an independent nation — is de jure part of communist-ruled China proper.

That stance is adhered to by most of the international community.

The second descriptor looks aimed at both Japan and the U.S.

On Dec. 17, Washington announced its largest-ever arms sale to Taiwan, packaging mobile guided missiles, self-propelled artillery and loitering munitions.

Beijing subsequently announced sanctions on the firms that produce the weapons.

Earlier, on Nov. 7, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said, in response to a question in the Diet, that a naval contingency off Taiwan would form an “existential threat” to Japan.

Per Japan’s constitution, that situation would trigger the activation of Tokyo’s Self Defense Forces.

Infuriated, Beijing responded with a range of measures, including diplomatic insult, a media offensive, major cutbacks in outgoing tourism, and sanctions on Japanese seafood imports.

Though Tokyo does not supply Taiwan with arms, it maintains amicable political and economic ties with Taipei.

Officially, both Washington and Tokyo have a policy of “strategic ambiguity” toward Taiwan’s defense.

In reality, both countries are increasing their build-up of bases in Japan’s southernmost islands, which dominate strategic naval choke points northeast of Taiwan.

Internal attack

Mr. Lai was grateful to both capitals.

His office stated that Taiwan “would continue to deepen its partnerships with the U.S. and like-minded countries in order to safeguard the universal values of freedom and democracy and uphold regional peace, stability and prosperity.”

And after Beijing announced sanctions on Japanese seafood, he trolled China by having himself photographed dining on Japanese seafood.

However, Beijing is not his only problem: He faces internal strife, too — though there is no evidence that China is co-opting Taiwan’s opposition.

On Dec. 26, the Yuan, Taiwan’s legislature, initiated impeachment proceedings against Mr. Lai on the grounds that he had undermined Taiwan’s constitutional order and democracy.

The vote was possible due to opposition control of the chamber. That factor has caused considerable political turmoil since the dual elections for president and the Yuan were held in 2024, with Mr. Lai winning the former seat of power and the opposition the latter.

Representatives from the main opposition Kuomintang and the smaller opposition Taiwan People’s Party voted 60 for, against 51 votes from Mr. Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party.

An actual impeachment vote will be called in May, per the opposition.

What prompted the tactic was Mr. Lai’s refusal to promulgate an amendment passed by the Yuan granting local governments more public monies. Reportedly, it was the first time a Taiwanese president failed to promulgate a parliamentary act.

However, the opposition do not control the two-thirds majority required for impeachment.

In the 113-seat chamber, Mr. Lai’s DPP has 52 seats, while the KMT and TPP, combined, hold 59, but 75 votes are required to dump him.

The opposition ploy has been variously described as “a stunt,” and a “long shot” — but also as “a symbolic move,” given that no Taiwanese president has ever faced impeachment.

The brouhaha showcases the polarized politics on the island and follows a novel tactic launched by the DPP grassroots — and supported by Mr. Lai — that aimed to dent the KMT’s position.

In July, a recall vote targeting 31 opposition politicians was launched by DPP diehards.

It failed dismally: Not a single seat changed hands.