Sen. Mark R. Warner’s path to reelection got a little clearer this week after Republican state Sen. Bryce Reeves bowed out of his short‑lived campaign.
His exit left the GOP without a leading challenger to Mr. Warner, 71, who is seeking a fourth term. Gov. Glenn Youngkin was viewed as the GOP’s strongest potential challenger, but he has ruled out a run, fueling speculation that he is more interested in running for president in 2028.
With the latest development, the overall political landscape in the Virginia Senate race hasn’t changed much.
Jesscia Taylor of the Cook Political Report says Mr. Warner, a former governor, was always going to be a difficult target for Republicans, who are concentrating their efforts on states where a pickup looks more plausible.
“I don’t think this was a competitive race when [Mr. Reeves] was in the race, and I don’t expect it to be a competitive race now,” Ms. Taylor said. “Republicans have several better targets. Obviously, Georgia and Michigan are their top two targets. I think then, followed by New Hampshire and then Minnesota, would even rank above this.”
Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate. The National Republican Senatorial Committee, the campaign arm for Senate Republicans, did not respond to a request for comment about its recruiting efforts in Virginia.
The last Republican to represent Virginia in the chamber was Sen. John Warner, who chose not to run again in 2008 and crossed party lines to endorse Mark Warner’s successful bid. The two Warners aren’t related.
Mr. Warner announced his reelection bid earlier this month, saying, “We need a vision to chart a new path and effective leadership to get it done.”
He now serves alongside Sen. Tim Kaine, who won the seat in 2012 after Sen. Jim Webb opted not to seek a second term. Mr. Webb’s dramatic 2006 victory helped to hand Democrats control of the Senate.
The spate of Democratic success at the ballot box underscores the state’s shift to the left.
That trend held this year: former Rep. Abigail Spanberger won the governor’s race by 15 points over Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle Sears, Mr. Youngkin’s preferred successor.
Democrats also swept the other statewide contests in the off-year election, expanding their majority in the House of Delegates.
It helps to explain why Mr. Youngkin is not interested in the job. His spokesman, Peter Finocchio, was blunt about his future: “He’s not running for Senate.”
Ms. Taylor said the bottom line is that running for the Senate is a far different challenge than running for governor.
She cited the failed Senate bids of former Republican Govs. Larry Hogan of Maryland, and Linda Lingle of Hawaii, as well as former Democratic Govs. Phil Bredesen of Tennessee and Steve Bullock of Montana.
“When these governors try to run for Senate, it’s just [that] they’re seen through an inherently more partisan light,” Ms. Taylor said.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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