OPINION:
A friend recently pointed out to me that I needed to take responsibility for my less-than-good predictions from last year, as well as make some preemptive mistakes heading into the new year.
What we got right …
“The Dow will finish the year above 46,000.” At this moment, the Dow is hovering just above 48,700. In all fairness, this is pretty easy – Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is doing all the heavy lifting.
“The price of oil will finish the year below $80 a barrel.” West Texas Intermediate is lurking around $58 per barrel. Exploration and production technology is so good that it is nearly impossible to drill a dry hole.
“Congress will complete one reconciliation bill by July. It will include tax provisions.” When in doubt, just assume that the federal government will throw more of your money at their problems.
“The world will use more oil, natural gas and coal than it did in 2023.” Who are these people who keep talking about peak oil? Why do they still have public platforms from which to spread their nonsense?
“More nations and companies will either remove or change the dates on their pledges to achieve net zero emissions, which will lead to the inevitable question: if your goal doesn’t have a timetable, is it really a goal or is it just an expression of good intentions?” No point in spiking the football here.
“Worldwide emissions of greenhouse gas will continue to increase. In response, the next United Nations Conference of the Parties will have an even larger number of participants fly to Brazil to harrumph about the 8 billion people on the planet who care more about affordable, reliable and plentiful energy than they do about climate change or the clean energy transition or whatever.” All of that absolutely happened.
“There will be a modest rearrangement of team Trump personnel before the end of the year. Also, by the end of the year it will become apparent that the Department of Government Efficiency’s efforts will probably not result in material changes to the trajectory of federal government spending or efficiency.” Absolutely correct about the boys from DOGE. It turns out it’s difficult to change something that you don’t really understand. I’m going to count the wholesale turnover in the office of presidential personnel as a “modest rearrangement.”
“I think Ohio State will win the college football championship. I would be very happy to be wrong about this.” I have no idea how anyone can root for the community college of Columbus.
“No clue who will win the World Series, but it won’t be the Mets, who, despite the presence of Juan Soto, will continue to be the Mets and lose somewhere along the line.” Spot on. My only regret is that baseball left us with a choice between Canadians and Californians. In the immortal words of General Lewis “Chesty” Puller, ‘Great. Now we can shoot at those bastards from every direction.’”
“There will be a new successor to St. Peter before the end of the year. I’d like to think he can’t be worse than the current occupant, but anything is possible.” Nail on the head here; still not sure how the new boss is going to turn out, but we all live under the watchful, loving care of God, so there’s only so much the new boss can do.
What we got wrong …
“The Bills will win the Super Bowl.” I am going to keep making this prediction until it happens, which may be never.
“At least one nation in the Western Hemisphere will fail.” Unless you count Minnesota as a failed state, I may have been a bit early on this one.
“Taylor Swift will win album of the year, although Beyonce probably deserves it more. “Wicked” crushes at the Oscars, because, let’s face it, most movies are lousy nowadays.” Well, Beyonce did win.
“At least two more nominees for jobs in the next administration will not be confirmed. President Trump will withdraw the United States from the Paris Accord and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.” This feels half-right. Lots of nominees were not confirmed, and the president withdrew from Paris but not the Framework.
“There will be drone attacks somewhere in the First Island chain.” Better luck next time.
“At least one Democrat will announce their candidacy for president. My bet is Brian Schatz.” Didn’t happen. My next bet would be Rahm Emanuel.
Next week, we’ll have some predictions for next year. So feel free to send along your best predictions. If they’re entertaining or provocative or fun, we’ll include them.
• Michael McKenna is a contributing editor at The Washington Times.
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