The Chinese military is continuing a massive, decades-long arms buildup, including a shift in nuclear force doctrine that increases the danger of a direct attack on the U.S., according to the Pentagon’s annual China military power report.
“China’s historic military buildup has made the U.S. homeland increasingly vulnerable,” the report states. “China maintains a large and growing arsenal of nuclear, maritime, conventional long-range strike, cyber and space capabilities able to directly threaten Americans’ security,” the report says.
The annual assessment, made public Tuesday, warns that the People’s Liberation Army continues to progress toward its 2027 modernization goals that include preparations for using force to annex Taiwan and threatening nuclear strikes on the United States to prevent American forces from intervening in a defense of the self-ruled island.
The Trump administration’s relations with China are “stronger” than they have been in many years, the report stated in an introduction. It noted that the U.S. does not seek to “strangle, dominate, or humiliate China.”
However, the U.S. military is ready to defend American interests in the Indo-Pacific, and, as outlined in a recent White House strategy, “we seek only to deny the ability of any country in the Indo-Pacific to dominate us or our allies.”
The report, primarily covering 2024, provides new details on the PLA’s large-scale buildup of nuclear missiles and warheads.
SEE ALSO: Congress mandates major upgrade to Taiwan defense
A key disclosure in the Pentagon’s 100-page report is the development of launch-on-warning nuclear strike capabilities.
As part of a nuclear buildup that U.S. Strategic Command leaders have called a “breakout” and “breathtaking” in speed and scale, China has made progress in producing what the report called “early warning counterstrike (EWCS) capability.”
The new capability will allow nuclear missiles to be launched upon warning of an enemy attack.
China is likely to continue refining and training on this capability throughout the rest of the decade, the report said.
China’s space-based missile early warning systems also advanced in 2024. The systems can detect an ICBM within 90 seconds of launch and alert a command center in three to four minutes.
China disclosed another new capability in December 2024 when the PLA fired several ICBMs in rapid succession, “indicating the ability to rapidly launch multiple silo-based ICBMs, as required for an EWCS operation.”
The PLA is thought to have loaded more than 100 solid-propellant intercontinental ballistic missiles into silos at its three silo fields. The DF-31 ICBMs are intended to support counterstrike operations, the report said.
For the first time, the Pentagon report identified the location and configuration of the three large missile silo fields at Yulin, Yumen and Hami, where a total of 320 ICBMs will be deployed.
The Pentagon assesses that the PLA is building nuclear warheads with yields less than 10 kilotons, or the equivalent of 10,000 tons of TNT.
“Such weapons address long-held PLA desires to be able to conduct limited nuclear counterstrikes against military targets and control nuclear escalation,” the report said. “Of China’s currently fielded systems, the DF-26 IRBM and the H-6N’s ALBM are both highly precise theater weapons that would be well suited for delivering a low-yield nuclear weapon.”
Nuclear warhead expansion continued last year, with the number of warheads remaining in the “low 600s.” Although the rate of expansion was slower than in previous years, a buildup aimed at deploying more than 1,000 warheads by 2030 was underway, the report said.
The nuclear threat from China increased while Beijing continued to refuse to engage in arms control talks with the U.S., the report said.
Notable nuclear weapons developments included the first open-ocean ICBM launch into the Pacific Ocean for the first time since 1980 in what the report called a “practice a wartime nuclear deterrence operation.”
The flight test showed that the unarmed missile from Hainan Island in the South China Sea traveled 6,835 miles to an impact near French Polynesia. Further tests are expected, the report said.
Other new information includes specific details on what the Pentagon calls a campaign of coercion against Taiwan involving information and legal warfare and large-scale military drills designed to force a capitulation of the government in Taipei.
By 2027, the PLA must be capable of executing a “strategic decisive victory” over Taiwan and “strategic counterbalance” against the U.S. through nuclear and other strategic threats, the report said.
“In other words, China expects to be able to fight and win a war on Taiwan by the end of 2027,” the report said.
For the first time in the annual report, military intelligence analysts conclude that the PLA is no longer seeking to deter Taiwan’s government from declaring formal independence.
Instead, constant threats and military pressure are designed to force a takeover on Beijing’s terms. The report notes that the ruling Chinese Communist Party has dropped mention of seeking “peaceful unification” in high-profile statements.
The omission indicates that China is seeking to compel unification through military, political and economic pressure rather than deterring independence.
The report also reveals new details of advanced weapons development, including nuclear and conventional systems, as well as extensive cyberattack capabilities and space weaponry.
China is leading the world in the development and fielding of hypersonic missiles, which are extremely fast weapons that can maneuver to avoid missile defenses.
The hypersonic missiles, which travel faster than 3,800 mph, augment a large arsenal of ballistic, cruise, air-to-air, air-to-surface, and surface-to-air missiles, the report said.
China has the world’s leading hypersonic missile arsenal and continued to advance the development of conventional and nuclear-armed hypersonic missile technologies during the past year, the report said.
The weapons include a new bomber-launched version of the YJ-21 hypersonic anti-ship ballistic missile. A second new missile is the land-based HQ-19 anti-ballistic missile, capable of striking high-speed ballistic missiles and hypersonic glide vehicles.
Another new weapon is an air-launched, long-range stealth cruise missile, identified as the CM-88, which is capable of loitering over targets before striking.
Internationally, the latest assessment of Chinese military developments warns of increasing strategic cooperation between China and Russia, including the first nuclear bomber patrols by the two nations.
China continued supporting Russia in its war in Ukraine by providing diplomatic, defense industrial and economic support aimed at alleviating the pain of Western sanctions on Moscow.
PLA warplane development continued to advance with initial flight tests of two advanced prototype jet fighters. The new sixth-generation stealth fighters are in the early stages of development and are expected to be operational by 2035.
Another new warplane for the PLA is the KJ-3000 Airborne Early Warning and Control aircraft, which will be used to target aircraft, ships and other vehicles.
“The KJ-3000 will probably be the world’s first model to use digital radar and will be capable of anti-jamming, passive detection, and target identification,” the report said.
China’s aircraft carrier development continued with sea trials in May of its third carrier, the Fujian, which is larger than the two earlier carriers and the first with a flat deck.
“The PLAN aims to produce six aircraft carriers by 2035 for a total of nine,” the report said.
In October 2024, the two current carriers, Liaoning and Shandong, conducted dual-carrier operations for the first time, a sign of increased combat capability, the report said.
PLA cyberwarfare capabilities were highlighted as advancing significantly and were described as “the most persistent cyber threat to U.S. government, military, and civilian networks,” the report said.
“Throughout 2024, PLA cyber actors almost certainly maintained and developed further cyberattack capabilities that would disrupt U.S. defense and civilian critical infrastructure,” the report said.
PLA military cyberwarfare tools will be used in a crisis or conflict to degrade key military systems needed for U.S. military operations and interoperability with allies and partners.
The report noted that China-origin cyber intrusions increased by 150% across all sectors in 2024 compared with the previous year.
Among the major Chinese cyberattack campaigns identified in the report was Salt Typhoon, which penetrated several U.S. telecommunications providers.
The penetrations likely provided “useful information to the PLA,” said the report, noting that a second program, Volt Typhoon, burrowed into critical U.S. infrastructures and attacked Taiwan and Singapore. Those operations demonstrated “China’s capacity for building cyber capabilities for future use in crisis or conflict, including for disrupting the U.S. military’s ability to mobilize in conflict,” the report said.
Another major threat identified was the development of counterspace weapons and capabilities.
“China is developing counterspace capabilities designed to restrict U.S. use of space and space-enabling technologies in a conflict,” the report said. “The PLA almost certainly plans to conduct terrestrial and space-based kinetic and non-kinetic antisatellite (ASAT) operations during a conflict with the United States, and will adapt employment strategies as new capabilities are fielded.”
The counterspace weapons include anti-satellite missiles, robot attack satellites, cyber capabilities, and electronic and directed energy attacks.
In a detailed section on a potential Taiwan assault, the Pentagon said China is executing a “whole of government” pressure campaign. The campaign includes diplomatic pressure, information warfare operations, steady military pressure and “acute” military operations around the island.
“Beijing seeks to unify Taiwan through an approach that uses a blend of positive inducements and targeted pressure short of war, though we have not observed many positive inducements during 2024,” the report said.
A key element of the campaign is “cognitive domain operations” that aim to weaken Taiwan’s will to resist and exacerbate social divisions within the country, the report stated.
The military campaign takes three forms: daily operations around the island, near-weekly combat patrols and large exercises timed to periods of heightened tensions.
During two large military drills, the PLA conducted a simulated blockade around Taiwan and an encirclement of Taiwan with warships and warplanes.
The PLA continued to refine military options for the use of force against Taiwan, the report said.
Options include coercion short of war that could “induce unification” with the mainland and a “joint firepower strike campaign” involving massive missile strikes.
A third option is a “joint blockade campaign” that would cordon off the island in seeking to force a capitulation to Beijing.
Last, the Pentagon warned that China is preparing for a “joint island landing campaign” with thousands of troops and tanks from ships assaulting Taiwan.
“During the past year, the PLA conducted operations that exercised essential components of these options, including exercises that focused on blockading key ports, striking sea and land targets, and countering potential U.S. military involvement in a conflict,” the report said.
Regarding China’s spending on military forces, the report stated that a broad consensus among analysts is that its announced annual spending of $231 billion is underreported by as much as 63%. Actual military spending on the PLA is estimated at $304 billion to $377 billion, the report said.
Retired Navy Capt. Jim Fanell, a former Pacific fleet intelligence director, said the report to Congress “makes it clear that the Trump administration does not seek to ‘strangle, dominate, or humiliate’ the People’s Republic of China.”
“As such, many changes to this year’s report have been included to adhere to that presidential direction,” he said, noting an effort to promote military-to-military engagement with China that critics say has not produced positive results.
“Likewise, the report gives prominent place to the firings of the PLA generals and admirals, which will feed rumors from Asia about the stability of [President] Xi Jinping’s control over the PLA,” he said.
Capt. Fanell said the report left the impression that those who in the past promoted “threat deflation” of the PLA “were all too pleased by the direction from the president.”
• Bill Gertz can be reached at bgertz@washingtontimes.com.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.