OPINION:
As 2025 draws to a close, there’s a growing belief that the war in the Gaza Strip is behind us. The living Israeli hostages have returned, and a ceasefire is holding for now. Still, the region is not on the path to stability. It is in a “post-hostage, pre-stability” limbo where the same forces that led to Oct. 7, 2023, risk reasserting themselves.
Phase two of President Trump’s peace framework envisions Hamas’ demilitarization, Israeli withdrawals, an interim Palestinian governing authority, international forces on the ground and billions of dollars in reconstruction aid. Yet no plan, however ambitious, can succeed unless three conditions are met.
First, Gaza’s reconstruction must account for Israel’s security concerns. The past 20 years have shown that when aid flows without safeguards, building materials become tunnels, humanitarian funds become weapons and civilian infrastructure is exploited for war. Israelis are rightly unwilling to see the conditions that enabled Oct. 7 repeated.
Second, stabilizing Gaza is complicated by a collapse of trust in the very institutions tasked with oversight of reconstruction and aid. The United Nations, particularly the U.N. Relief and Works Agency, has forfeited credibility through politicization, corruption and documented ties to Hamas. Institutions that failed to protect civilians cannot simply resume their roles without fundamental reform. If they can’t meet basic standards of accountability and neutrality, then new mechanisms must replace them.
The third requirement is an unambiguous rejection of proxy warfare and hostage diplomacy. Iran’s support for Hamas, Hezbollah and other terrorist groups keeps Gaza trapped in perpetual conflict and Israel under constant threat. Hamas’ use of kidnapping as a political tool — and the world’s failure to reject it — sent a dangerous message that terrorism can still shape diplomatic outcomes.
Together, these realities point to a hard truth: A weakened or partially disarmed Hamas is not sufficient. Any future in which Hamas retains power is not a future of peace. The coming year will determine whether the region breaks with the patterns that made war inevitable or repeats them yet again.
AVIVA KLOMPAS
Co-founder, Boundless Israel
Waltham, Massachusetts
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