Trump’s surprising policy turn on Pakistan

OPINION:

In early January, the U.S. diplomatic and national security relationship with Pakistan was far from cordial.

Islamabad was viewed as being in lockstep with the Taliban, politically questionable and somewhat isolated diplomatically. Despite a gradual recovery from the 2022-2023 floods and recent growth in gross domestic product, its economy still depended on external financing.

Washington saw Pakistan as unreliable and of limited strategic value, while its powerful security establishment was widely considered opaque, prone to double-dealing and unwilling to deliver on counterterrorism commitments.

Analysts warned that Pakistan could face its “most severe” national security challenge in at least a decade and possibly since the 1990s. Yet by the end of 2025, Pakistan appears to have gone from pariah to partner. Few nations have experienced a reputational swing as swift or dramatic. Pakistan has emerged as a pillar of President Trump’s evolving foreign policy vision for South Asia.

Strategically, senior Trump advisers also regarded Pakistan with unease. Its close ties with China especially reinforced these concerns. Pakistani authorities often boast of a friendship with Beijing “deeper than the oceans, taller than the mountains.” The prevailing expectation among Mr. Trump’s emerging foreign policy circle was clear: Double down on India, strengthen the Quad as its Indo-Pacific anchor and, in India’s long-standing interests, sideline Islamabad.

Yet even as Washington leaned into an India-first posture, concerns were mounting about India’s trajectory, from its increasingly majoritarian domestic politics and constraints on civil liberties to its uneven military performance and growing reputation for diplomatic inflexibility. These issues, long ignored or downplayed, were beginning to cast doubt on India’s reliability as regional stabilizer.

The first sign that the icy relationship was beginning to thaw was a series of discreet counterterrorism exchanges, suggesting Islamabad was finally willing to engage in substantive cooperation. When Mr. Trump unexpectedly praised Pakistan’s efforts in a national address in March, Washington was taken aback. The remarks cut directly against long-standing policy, and the infamous “DC Blob” was faced with a new reality regarding Pakistan as a newer and stronger ally.

Islamabad seized the opportunity. Each small gesture of cooperation from Islamabad earned it unexpected credit in Washington, and that credit, in turn, encouraged more engagement. What had long been a brittle, transactional relationship began to take on greater importance as both sides realigned to the new realities.

Trump officials who once dismissed Pakistan now speak of it as responsive, useful, even flexible. A virtuous cycle emerged where more gestures led to more cooperation, cooperation prompted more praise, and the partnership deepened at a pace few in Washington would have believed possible just months earlier.

A decisive turning point came with Pakistan’s unexpected showing in its brief but intense May clash with India, an outcome that reportedly left Mr. Trump stunned. The conflict showcased a level of military discipline, strategic focus and asymmetric capability that Washington had thought unattainable. Officials in Washington who had casually written off Pakistan as a fading power began referring to it once again as a serious regional actor.

For Mr. Trump, the episode redrew the strategic map: Pakistan was now viewed as an emerging asset whose capabilities could anchor his broader South Asia vision.

Pakistan’s military modernization has gained additional momentum from this renewed relevance on the global stage. The armed forces’ command structure has been overhauled, introducing a new top-tier position, the chief of defense forces, now held by Field Marshal Asim Munir, who concurrently serves as army chief.

No less a factor was India’s dismissal and Pakistan’s gratitude for Mr. Trump’s intervention in brokering a ceasefire. To Mr. Trump, a leader who speaks of “ending wars rather than starting wars,” the Indian response to his efforts likely stung deeply. As India damaged its relationship, Pakistan’s stock in Washington soared.

Emerging as the star of Mr. Trump’s inner circle is Mr. Munir, whose relationship with the president took on a chemistry that advisers half-jokingly described as a budding bromance. In Washington’s newly fluid court politics, Mr. Munir became a man whom insiders portrayed as a figure of “deliberate mystery, a disciplined dark horse who tightly manages his public image.” Pakistan, sensing its moment, leaned confidently into the attention, even indulging in lighthearted Nobel Prize chatter designed to flatter Mr. Trump and captivate the press.

The reward for Mr. Munir was a lunch meeting at the White House, a first for any head of Pakistan’s military in history. The cameras loved the spectacle. Mr. Trump loved it even more, and the narrative surrounding Pakistan shifted almost overnight from suspicion and caution to fascination and celebration. Less than two months later, Mr. Munir returned to the U.S. for a red carpet visit to Central Command headquarters for high-level talks with its outgoing commander, Gen. Michael Kurilla, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine.

At the beginning of 2026, Pakistan sits near the center of Mr. Trump’s emerging grand strategy for South Asia and the Far East. Islamabad offers multiple opportunities for American interests to include a discreet and credible channel to Iran, a potential key role in the ever-shifting Gaza Strip calculus and a subtle but effective counterweight to China’s regional influence.

As a result, Pakistan has suddenly woven into nearly every major conversation about the Middle East and South Asia. What began as tentative outreach has evolved into a strategic centrality few in Washington could have imagined at the start of the year.

The era of India first in Washington has come to an end, albeit perhaps a temporary situation. That will depend on New Delhi and Islamabad. Pakistan’s transformation is still unfolding, its final contours far from settled. Yet its geopolitical impact is already undeniable, and Pakistan has, to the U.S. administration, earned its way to a place of importance of regional and international regional strategy, reshaping U.S. policy and rewriting the balance of South Asia in 2025.

• Brig. Gen. Mark Kimmitt (retired) is a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Near East and South Asia and former assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs.