War in space: Here’s how it could unfold

OPINION:

A war is coming in space. Here’s how it starts.

It begins small. We don’t realize at first that we are under attack. When we do finally see it, things escalate quickly. The enemy will have prepared in secret. Initial maneuvers will appear routine. Suddenly, without warning, declaration or even threats, we lose communications over Taiwan and the Strait of Malacca.

We task our spy satellites to stare at these locations, but they are unresponsive. We pivot to our Space-Based Infrared System missile warning satellite constellation to look for any thermal heat signatures of activity, but these have just gone offline. Shortly after that, GPS over the Pacific region becomes spotty and intermittent.

For the first few hours, we think it must be a massive geomagnetic storm, a blast of protons sent our way by a huge solar flare and coronal mass ejection event, taking out insufficiently hardened satellites. Civilian employees at NASA are bombarded by Space Force personnel asking for information on space weather from the Global Earth Observation System of Systems, the Solar Orbiter or any other source.

Some operators, unaware of the full extent of the losses, assume that a Kessler-like cascading satellite collision and debris field is spreading through low earth orbit, creating general destruction. They begin reaching out to civilian telecom and internet providers for information. A few hours in, it becomes clear that civil and radiation-hardened military satellites, in various orbits, are offline.

Now we know. A full-scale attack in space is underway. This can mean only one thing: A massive terrestrial war has begun in the Eastern Pacific. China is seizing territory that it knows the U.S. would contest with force. It might be Taiwan, Malaysia or somewhere else. We don’t know. We are blind.

U.S. Strategic Command and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command go on alert. The Joint Chiefs are convened. The president is informed. Significant confusion continues as this rapidly unfolds, and the Pentagon and White House desperately seek any information to shed light on the situation.

Because the Space-Based Infrared System and the Advanced Extremely High Frequency communications satellite network have been attacked, the president is forced to also consider that our nuclear deterrent is compromised, causing the loss of our nuclear missile warning system and one of our primary means of communicating with our strategic forces.

Eventually, data begins to trickle in from the few communication systems still functioning in the region. Public accounts join these via the internet. (In the general chaos, it was not immediately noted that several of the undersea internet trunks into Asia are cut and the internet traffic in and out of the region has become a congested mess.)

War is underway. U.S. naval ships and bases within the Second Island Chain have been engaged and are struggling to mount a coordinated response. China has achieved surprise and has the initiative. Orders are given for air and sea assets to withdraw and regroup outside the active area. We concede Round 1 to the enemy.

This scenario is not speculative fiction. The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission just warned Congress that China is building the capability to disable America’s satellites in a crisis — blinding our forces, severing communication and undermining deterrence. Their report describes a conflict that begins not with explosions but with silence.

Although this theoretical account paints a dark picture, it’s plausible. It would create horrendous human cost and change the geopolitical landscape forever. It could happen soon, at a time of China’s choosing. The key that opens the lock to attacking our otherwise formidable forces in the region is the opening blow in space that leaves us blind and mute.

We must make attacking space every bit as daunting a challenge as are our forces here on Earth. We need complete, real-time monitoring of the space domain to prevent surprise. Our assets must be actively protected, not floating helplessly and unaware above our heads.

Should an adversary choose to try us, we must be able to conduct prolonged combat operations in orbit, moving assets to replace losses, relocating high-value satellites and coordinating and commanding offensive operations against threats — all in real time, with secure and uninterruptible surveillance, communications, command and control.

Although the U.S. Space Force now has a framework for fighting a war in space, we’re far from achieving and maintaining space superiority. That must change as quickly as possible, with Congress and the Pentagon allocating the necessary resources and focus to developing our space capabilities — fast.

• Tory Bruno is the president and CEO of United Launch Alliance. He is an elected member of the National Academies, an honored fellow of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics and an elected academician of the International Academy of Astronautics.