OPINION:
Clashes and quarrels from Ukraine to Taiwan raise the specter of the dreaded two-front — or maybe multifront — war, and it’s one for which the United States is ill-prepared. Incredibly, China and Russia share common cause in both cauldrons of conflict and could even form a horrifying alliance against the U.S., if they haven’t already.
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te has just challenged China by proclaiming the goal of establishing an “iron dome” with enough firepower to fend off any attack ordered by Chinese President Xi Jinping. It’s difficult to believe Mr. Xi’s enormous People’s Liberation Army would not overrun the place in a few days, but Taiwanese defense experts often compare the island’s defenses to those of a porcupine, whose nasty quills can impale the most menacing of outsized predators.
Here’s the connection to Ukraine. China can give diplomatic and moral support to the Russians, who, in turn, are pretty sure of eventually winning that war after accepting the phony peace deal cooked up by President Trump’s advisers. Even if the Russians halt the fighting for now, they will soon enough pick up where they left off, nibbling away here and there before renewing a full frontal attack. The Kremlin knows that Mr. Trump is not a fervent admirer of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whom Mr. Trump keeps pressuring to go along with a plan that the Ukrainian leader is sure is a prelude to eventual defeat.
Mr. Trump’s affinity for heavy-handed dictators — whether Messrs. Putin, Xi or the leaders of lesser powers such as Hungary, Turkey and Argentina — plays right into the hands of the forces fighting for the survival of democracies that need America’s impassioned support.
Evans Revere, a retired senior American diplomat who spent years in Seoul and Tokyo, makes the connection between the peace talks with Ukraine and Mr. Trump’s latest phone chat with Mr. Xi. “It’s hard not to look at what’s going on except in the context of the so-called peace deal talks with Ukraine,” he tells me. “In those talks, when the U.S. has not been tabling what seem to be Russian talking points and allowing Moscow to dictate the terms of a cessation of hostility, the U.S. has been looking to serve as an intermediary between Kyiv and Moscow — a strange role for the United States, which is supposed to be Ukraine’s ally.”
Here’s the immediate China connection. “President Trump has often praised the PRC and Xi’s leadership,” says Mr. Revere. “He did so again in the aftermath of his latest conversation with Xi Jinping, where, it is reported Taiwan was discussed.” Meanwhile, he says, “U.S. allies and partners in Asia are looking with concern as the U.S. seems prepared to let Ukraine hang out to dry.”
China does not have to offer material aid to Russia in Ukraine. All that’s necessary is for China to support its protectorate, North Korea, with the oil it needs to power its economy, plus half its food, while North Korea pours thousands of troops and millions of artillery shells and other war materiel into Russia.
The Russia-China entente comes through clearly from Europe to Northeast Asia. Together, they ensure not only North Korea’s survival but also a new level of relative prosperity for the elite in the capital of Pyongyang and a few other centers, notably the port of Wonsan on the southeast coast, where Kim Jong-un maintains his favorite palace and proudly watches over the construction of lavish tourist hotels along the area’s lovely sandy beaches.
Historic antipathy between China and Japan adds a new dimension to the war in Ukraine and the threat to Taiwan. Japan, under hawkish, fledgling Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, would be the first to rush to Taiwan’s defense in a showdown. Ms. Takaichi has upset China no end by saying that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would confront Japan with a threat to its own survival, meaning that Japan would fight for Taiwan as if it were Japanese territory (which indeed it was before Japan’s defeat in World War II).
Russia does not have the capacity to go to war over Taiwan but would love seeing America and Japan tied down fighting the Chinese. South Korea, fearful of incurring the wrath of China, its biggest trading partner, would stay aloof, wary of Americans fighting the Chinese from Korean bases.
“As Taiwan remains under strong pressure from China’s military, and Tokyo has been suffering a relentless barrage of hostile comments and threats from China,” the logic is basic, says Mr. Revere. “With Beijing prepared to throw its weight — and its threats and rhetoric — around at an unprecedented level, America’s Asian allies and partners need Washington’s embrace right now, not a reminder of the current U.S. administration’s preference to flirt with those who threaten our friends.”
• Donald Kirk is a former Far East correspondent for the Chicago Tribune and the old Washington Star.
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