OPINION:
South Korea’s Korea Institute for Defense Analysis recently stated publicly that we underestimated North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. According to its analysis, North Korea has 127 to 150 — not 50 to 60 — nuclear weapons, and by 2030 will have 200, reaching 400 by 2040.
At the eighth Central Committee of the Workers’ Congress in late 2022, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ordered the exponential expansion of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal and the development of a more powerful intercontinental ballistic missile. Mr. Kim reportedly said: “They are now keen on isolating and stifling [North Korea]. … The prevailing situation calls for making redoubled efforts to overwhelmingly beef up [our] military muscle.”
During this six-day meeting of the Central Committee, Mr. Kim called for an “exponential increase of the country’s nuclear arsenal” and for the mass production of battlefield tactical nuclear weapons targeting South Korea and a new ICBM with a “quick nuclear counterstrike” capability that could hit the U.S.
North Korean leaders usually say what they plan to do, and this is the case with Mr. Kim. Not only has he apparently done this with his arsenal of nuclear weapons, but in October, at the parade celebrating the 80th anniversary of the Korean Workers’ Party, he introduced the Hwasong-20, a solid-fuel, mobile, three-stage ICBM capable of targeting all the U.S.
The Hwasong-20 could also be capable of launching multiple nuclear warheads at various targets, which would challenge any missile defense system. So the arsenal of ICBMs that could strike the U.S. has grown exponentially with the Hwasong-20, as Mr. Kim said in 2022.
North Korea has also been working on its submarine program to include a nuclear-powered submarine. This is in addition to its extensive work on hypersonic and cruise missiles, all representing a challenge to any missile defense system.
It is developing a second-strike capability, with programs to ensure the survivability of some of its nuclear weapons and the progress it has made with solid-fuel mobile ICBMs and nuclear-armed submarines. Moreover, the country’s doctrine for the use of nuclear weapons has changed to a preemptive first use of nuclear weapons if a nuclear attack against the leadership or command and control systems is imminent or perceived as imminent.
Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Pyongyang in June 2024, when he and Mr. Kim signed a mutual defense treaty, part of a “strategic comprehensive partnership” between Russia and North Korea, ratified in November 2024. Article 4 of the treaty states that should either nation “put in a state of war by an armed invasion, the other will provide military and other assistance with all means in its possession without delay.”
In October 2024, NATO claimed North Korean soldiers arrived in Russian Kursk Oblast to join Russian forces in its war of aggression with Ukraine. North Korea was also providing Russia with artillery shells and ballistic missiles. That assistance continues.
In return, it’s likely that, in addition to energy and food assistance, Russia is assisting North Korea with its satellite and ballistic missile programs and its nuclear program. Indeed, Russia could help with North Korea’s nuclear-powered submarine program, especially with the design, materials and components for such a technically challenging program.
North Korea’s mutual defense treaty with Russia and its participation in the war with Ukraine were major failings of the U.S. and South Korea. We should have seen movement in this direction and done more to prevent it from happening. It’s highly ironic that Russia now says North Korea should have nuclear weapons when, in the six-party talks, it was in sync with the U.S. and others arguing that North Korea should not have nuclear weapons.
North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs are existential threats to the U.S. and its allies. Our past policy to “contain and deter” North Korea and be “strategically patient” with North Korea didn’t work. U.S. and South Korean leaders must try to get Mr. Kim to reengage, especially with President Trump.
As South Korean President Lee Jae-myung said, North and South Korea are in a “very dangerous situation” in which an accidental clash is possible at any time.
• The author is a former associate director of national intelligence. All statements of fact, opinion or analysis expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official positions or views of the U.S. government. Nothing in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying U.S. government authentication of information or endorsement of the author’s views.
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