NCAA frowns on prediction market’s plans for transfer portal bets

NCAA President Charlie Baker took to social media Thursday to publicly oppose planned prediction markets from Kalshi that would let users bet on which college football players would hit the transfer portal.

Kalshi, a popular prediction market, filed paperwork that could let bettors gamble on transfer portal status as early as this week, according to multiple reports. The company later said in a statement that it would not immediately accept wagers related to the transfer portal.

“It is already bad enough that student-athletes face harassment and abuse for lost bets on game performance, and now Kalshi wants to offer bets on their transfer decisions and status,” Baker wrote on X. “This is absolutely unacceptable and would place even greater pressure on student-athletes while threatening competition integrity and recruiting processes.”

The rumored prediction market had already been condemned throughout the college football landscape, while the sport is embroiled in a culture change brought on by athlete payments.

This year, universities have started announcing when players re-sign to remain at their schools instead of entering the transfer portal.

“Their decisions and future should not be gambled with, especially in an unregulated marketplace that does not follow any rules of legitimate sports betting operators,” Baker said.

Prediction markets do not face the same regulations as traditional sportsbooks.

The operators often let users wager on real-world events, such as elections. Unlike traditional gambling businesses, prices are set by public sentiment instead of an oddsmaker.

Prediction markets are accessible in all 50 states, including jurisdictions where sports betting is not legal.

The idea of wagers on college transfers worries Shannon Terry, who founded On3, a website that focuses on college recruiting, the portal and NIL.

“This is a terrible idea and will be rife with manipulation,” he said. “The fluid nature and lack of sophistication of the transfer portal create a perfect setup for insider betting, exploitation and outright corruption.”

Kalshi walked back its plans on Wednesday following the backlash.

“We certify markets all the time that we do not end up listing,” the company said in a statement to ESPN. “Despite our competitors having these markets live, we have no immediate plans to list these contracts.”