Hamas thinks it won

OPINION:

The Trump plan for Gaza, approved at the United Nations Security Council with unusual global alignment, is rapidly coming apart. Urgent action is needed to avoid a meltdown.

The Gaza peace plan was hailed as a bold framework for “the day after,” a path that would rebuild the Gaza Strip, stabilize the region and create a mechanism to prevent another cycle of destruction. It passed with fanfare. Washington championed it, Europe endorsed it, and Arab states signaled cautious support. The plan had a central assumption baked into every paragraph, every timeline and every promise: that Hamas would disarm.

Now Hamas has said openly that it will not disarm under any circumstances. In a video message, top leader Khaled Mashal declared in a video address that “protecting the resistance … and its weapons is our people’s right to defend themselves” and vowed his group will not disarm, give up control of Gaza or accept any form of international oversight.

Not for aid. Not for reconstruction. Not even to relieve the suffering of the civilians it claims to represent.

With that statement, the entire plan’s architecture — political, humanitarian and security — collapses. You cannot build policy atop a fantasy, and the fantasy was that Hamas would voluntarily become rational or humane without massive pressure.

This is extremely meaningful. Hamas’ entire strategy was to survive the Oct. 7, 2023, massacre and draw Israel into such a brutal war that the Jewish state’s reputation was trashed. Israel’s goal was to remove Hamas from power in Gaza and win the return of its hostages. If things stay as they are, Hamas will claim victory. In the Middle East, this has meaning, and jihadism and its attendant anti-Americanism will be boosted.

So the Trump plan is failing because it never answered the central question: What happens if Hamas simply says no? The resolution has no enforcement mechanism. No clearly defined consequences. No plan for civilian protection in the absence of disarmament. The resolution offers benchmarks without penalties, timelines without teeth and aspirations without tools.

The costs are devastating. Gaza cannot be rebuilt under Hamas’ guns. Foreign investment cannot flow while armed factions retain full control of territory, borders and civilian institutions. Humanitarian corridors cannot operate safely if Hamas insists on maintaining arsenals beneath densely populated areas. Every dollar of reconstruction aid risks being diverted, taxed or seized. Every school, hospital or road risks becoming part of the next military calculus.

The international community has reached the limit of ambiguity. The world cannot restore Gaza’s civilian life while ignoring that its ruling organization remains committed to armed struggle, refuses even symbolic concessions and uses civilians as protective infrastructure. A credible path forward therefore requires what the Trump plan avoided: conditionality, enforcement and multilateral oversight.

What to do? Here’s the plan.

First of all, a high-profile international meeting led by the United States, with the participation of the European Union, the Arab League, NATO and any other relevant international players, is necessary. At this meeting, Hamas and the Palestinians must be confronted with a simple reality: Massive reconstruction fund and assistance plan measures totaling hundreds of billions of dollars, mostly provided by the Gulf countries, are available — if Hamas gives up power and disarms. If it does not, absolutely no reconstruction will occur.

All reconstruction funds must therefore be escrowed. Donors can pledge, but no money should move until verified progress is made on security benchmarks. Independent inspectors must conduct verification. The United Nations, Arab League, EU and U.S. must create a joint oversight mechanism capable of freezing or accelerating funds based on compliance.

Next, the stabilization force promoted in the plan must be created. It does not need to be massive, but it must be real and empowered to control crossings, inspect cargo, enforce demilitarization zones and protect civilian agencies. It need not fight Hamas but go in only once Hamas surrenders. The Trump plan gestures vaguely toward international involvement; what is needed is a defined mandate backed by governments willing to own the outcome.

Third, Arab states must play an operational role, not merely a diplomatic one. Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have strategic interests in preventing Gaza from becoming a permanent destabilizing force. Qatar and Turkey, the two states with the most leverage over Hamas, must be pressed, not asked, to acknowledge publicly that armed rule in Gaza is over. That is not optional. The contradiction between their private assurances and Hamas’ public defiance is untenable.

Fourth and most sensitive, provisions must be made for voluntary temporary civilian evacuation from Hamas-controlled areas if disarmament stalls. People must have the option to leave without being trapped physically or politically by an armed organization. The most feasible place for the Gaza residents to go is to humanitarian areas erected temporarily in the Israeli-controlled half of the strip, which is the periphery along the Israeli border.

This is not population transfer but civilian protection with explicit rights of return and international guarantees.

The removal of Hamas, a fanatical, jihadi mafia, is critical in many ways. The Trump plan speaks of a process leading to potential Palestinian statehood. This requires Israel to be willing to make territorial concessions in the West Bank, which is a strategic highland overlooking Tel Aviv and surrounding Jerusalem on three sides. Israel will never do this if an armed force is in the picture and could attempt an Oct. 7-style attack from so nearby.

So the international community must be clear: Reconstruction without Hamas disarmament will not happen. Every Western and Arab country should back this.

Hamas’ rejection of disarmament offers a rare moment of clarity. This is not an Israeli problem but a global humanitarian emergency. The Gaza residents must be freed from Hamas.

• Dan Perry is a former Cairo-based Middle East editor and London-based Europe/Africa editor of The Associated Press, a former chairman of the Foreign Press Association in Jerusalem and the author of two books. Follow him at danperry.substack.com.