OPINION:
James Q. Wilson, a former professor of government at Harvard University, wrote in his book “The Marriage Problem”: “It is not money, but the family that is the foundation of public life. As it has become weaker, every structure built upon that foundation has become weaker.”
Over the past several years, demographers have been warning about the coming societal and economic earthquakes that will result from Americans not getting married and, if they do, having fewer or no children at all.
The problem is not isolated to the United States. Japan is openly acknowledging that the lack of a replacement population is perhaps the nation’s biggest problem.
Peter H. Schuck, professor emeritus at Yale Law School, perhaps put it best when he wrote in his book, “One Nation Undecided: Clear Thinking About Five Hard Issues That Divide Us”: “The family is the essential core of any society, and the steady decline of two-parent households is probably the single most consequential social trend of the half-century.”
The most recent warning comes from William Galston, formerly of the Clinton administration. In a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed, he writes that “in many parts of the U.S., the future is now. In areas with older, mainly white inhabitants, deaths exceed births and populations are shrinking.”
In early 2024, the Congressional Budget Office released troubling numbers regarding current fertility rates in the United States. The report clearly illustrates that what was once a matter of concern is rapidly becoming a full-blown crisis, as the CBO forecasts significantly lower population growth over the next three decades.
For instance, by 2054, the population receiving Social Security will grow from its current total of 342 million to 383 million. The current ratio of people ages 25 to 64 to those 65 and older is currently 2.9-1. By 2054, it will be 2.2-1. That will be unsustainable, as life expectancy rates have increased since Social Security was instituted in the 1930s, often resulting in people receiving benefits for 20 to 30 years.
So, while people living longer is one contributing factor, it is just that: one factor. More and greater factors are in play. Perhaps the most important one is this: Americans are not getting married or forming families, or, if they do, it happens later in women’s prime childbearing years.
For instance, in 1970, married couples made up 71% of all American households. By 2022, that percentage had decreased to just 47%. In 1962, 90% of all 30-year-olds were married. That dropped to 51% in 2019.
Even if people are married, many opt out of parenthood altogether.
In 2024, the Pew Research Center reported that 57% of adults younger than 50 who say they are unlikely to ever have children cite a major reason as they just don’t want to; 31% of those 50 and older without children cite this as a reason they never had them.
Meanwhile, every foundational institution to a nation’s well-being — health care, education and the workplace — will be shaken to the core by the demographic earthquakes that will result.
Across the nation, we are already seeing schools beginning to close because of decreased enrollment (down 5.5% by 2031). Businesses are having a much harder time finding young, skilled, able-bodied workers. Fewer children will likely mean a continued drop in our fertility rates, as there will be even fewer young adults getting married and having their own children in the future.
When the foundation starts to shake and crumble, it is not long before the rest of the building comes tumbling down as well. Unless we change things, we will be trapped in a societal and cultural death spiral from which there will be no return.
Although other factors are in play — particularly economic ones for young couples who find themselves increasingly priced out of the real estate market — this spiral is the natural result of a society that focuses on “self-fulfillment,” epitomized by the mantra of “You do you.” This robs people of the joys of bringing children into the world. It also sees them as poor financial investments when it should view them as human investments for the greater good.
If we are going to diffuse the coming population implosion and its effects on our society, it is critical that we address not just the economic but also the cultural issues that are leading young people to either not get married or not have children. Otherwise, we will just need bigger government-funded shovels as we slowly dig a societal grave.
It is my hope that instead, we will return to planting new seeds of life, which will continue to flourish so our nation, and all nations, can continue to thrive rather than crumble to dust.
• Timothy S. Goeglein is vice president of external and government relations for Focus on the Family. He served as a special assistant to President George W. Bush and as a deputy director of the White House Office of Public Liaison. His latest book is “Stumbling Toward Utopia” (Fidelis Publishing, 2024).
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