OPINION:
To hear the mainstream media tell it, Republicans are going to be crushed in the 2026 midterms.
But here’s one big problem (other than the fact that the mainstream gets everything wrong): The Democrats are still the same old Democrats, the ones President Trump crushed in 2024, the ones who lost the House and Senate.
According to a scathing new report from a center-left group called Welcome — which, ironically, is exactly what the party isn’t making voters feel — Democrats successfully alienated just about everyone except self-described “White liberals” and people who think “birthing person” flows naturally in conversation. That hasn’t changed.
The report, shared first with Semafor, is essentially a 70-page intervention letter titled “Deciding to Win.” It’s filled with groundbreaking revelations, like the fact that voters prefer safe neighborhoods over lectures on privilege. Who knew? After consulting hundreds of thousands of voters, Welcome found that 70% think the Democratic Party is “out of touch.”
Why? Because while the average voter is worried about the border and crime, Democrats are busy prioritizing “progressive ideology purity.” As former Rep. Cheri Bustos of Illinois put it, “The Democratic Party had better listen — for the good of our nation.” Narrator voice: It didn’t.
Take immigration, an issue Democrats handle with the grace of a toddler juggling chain saws. Voters saw President Biden open the floodgates and allow millions of foreigners into America, clogging the nation’s schools and health care system. Voters went to the polls in 2024 and said, “Let’s fix that problem first.” Mr. Trump obliged.
Democrats are trapped in a performative loop. According to new polling, while voters are slightly less thrilled with the president’s overkill on immigration (masked men busting moms picking up their children at school does not make for a good campaign ad), they trust Democrats even less to manage the border effectively.
The deficit is staggering. Voters trust Republicans more on border security by a 40-point margin. And while 77% of voters say illegal immigration is in a better place than a year ago (thanks to aggressive enforcement), they still view it as a national crisis.
Yet despite voters screaming for balance — security plus humanity — Democrats seem terrified to own the issue. They’re losing ground on the one thing that actually matters to swing voters while racking up wins on issues nobody is prioritizing. It’s a bold strategy. Let’s see if it pays off. (Spoiler: It won’t.)
So how did the party respond to this catastrophic data at its recent summer meeting in Minneapolis? Did it reflect? Pivot? No. It opened with a “land acknowledgment” statement (remember, we stole America from the Indians). Then it brought in the Vera Institute to explain that being “tough on crime” is actually authoritarian and that “migrant crime and carjackings are things that don’t matter to many Americans.”
Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison took the stage and bragged about suing the Trump administration over gender-affirming care for minors, and Oakland Mayor Barbara Lee boasted about refusing to cooperate with U.S. immigration and Customs Enforcement. It was a master class in how to alienate the very voters they need to win back.
The cherry on top came from Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin, who tried to rally the troops by saying last summer, “I’m sick and tired of this Democratic Party bringing a pencil to a knife fight.”
Ken, buddy, the saying is “bringing a knife to a gunfight.” If you’re bringing a pencil to a knife fight, you’re not just outgunned; you’re filing paperwork while getting stabbed. And honestly, that is the most perfect metaphor for the current state of the Democratic Party.
From 2020 to 2024, Democrats lost ground in every single state that tracks voter registration. They lost 2 million voters while Republicans gained 2.4 million. Their net favorability is at a 30-year low. They are broke, broken and wandering into the political wilderness with nothing but a land acknowledgment and a pencil.
Greg Schultz, Mr. Biden’s former campaign manager, summed it up best: “For the last 20 years, Democrats have just misunderstood how you actually win elections.”
He noted that the actual base of the party is a 58-year-old woman without a college degree. “But when you hear people in D.C. say ‘the base,’ they mean White intellectuals that live in a few coastal cities.”
Until Democrats stop catering to the faculty lounge and start listening to the actual electorate, they should probably get comfortable in the wilderness. It’s going to be a long stay.
• Joseph Curl covered the White House and politics for a decade for The Washington Times. He can be reached at josephcurl@gmail.com and on Twitter @josephcurl.
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