OPINION:
Russian leader Vladimir Putin has repeatedly threatened that Russia might use nuclear weapons if its sovereignty or territory is threatened, as it enters the fourth year in its war of aggression in Ukraine. The Russian Federation has revised its nuclear doctrine and lowered the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. Given their lethality, nuclear weapons used in any large-scale exchanges would kill tens or hundreds of millions of people.
The 1963 Cuban missile crisis brought us close to a nuclear war with the Soviet Union. It was the basis for President Kennedy’s concern that more countries with nuclear weapons would create an unstable world with nuclear war more likely. Kennedy feared that by 1970 there may be 10 nuclear powers instead of four (the U.S., the Soviet Union, Britain and France) and by 1975, there could be as many as 10 or 20. It would be “the greatest possible danger and hazard to contemplate — a nuclear arms race on a multipolar basis.” Kennedy’s concerns are the same as those we have today, with the prospect of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and in East Asia.
The Cuban missile crisis contributed to several arms control efforts, such as the Limited Test Ban Treaty (1963) banning atmospheric and underwater tests and the creation of the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Indeed, the NPT established a global framework for the 191 member countries to stop non-nuclear states from getting nuclear weapons. There are now nine nuclear weapons states and concern that more countries will seek the resources necessary to produce their own nuclear weapons or to buy them.
In East Asia, North Korea has increased its stockpile of nuclear weapons and the ballistic missiles to deliver these weapons of mass destruction. The Korea Institute for Defense Analysis recently said publicly that North Korea has 127 to 150 nuclear weapons and by 2030 will have 200 nuclear weapons.
Given the likely assistance North Korea is receiving from Russia with its nuclear and missile programs, it’s possible that South Korea and Japan, threatened by a belligerent North Korea, will conclude that they need their own nuclear deterrent programs too. Indeed, a recent poll in South Korea found that more than 70% of the people think the country needs its own nuclear weapons program instead of relying on the U.S. nuclear umbrella.
South Korea and Japan are watching what happens to Ukraine. This is a sovereign country invaded by a Russia that disregarded its security guarantees to Ukraine, with the 1994 Budapest Memorandum also signed by the U.S. and Britain. Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons for security assurances that Russia ignored.
Will the U.S. and NATO be there for Ukraine this time, or should Ukraine pursue its own nuclear deterrent?
The U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz in June was in response to Iran’s continued enrichment of uranium at 60% or higher and Iran’s unwillingness to permit International Atomic Energy Agency monitors to inspect non-declared suspected enrichment sites.
Thus, since 2003, when Iran said it ceased its nuclear weapons program, the country has been a threshold nuclear weapons state, months away from being able to produce nuclear weapons if the U.S. and the European Union refused to comply with its demands.
If Iran produces or acquires nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt would rush to create their own nuclear weapons programs. The U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites in June was an effort to ensure that Iran did not go nuclear.
Kennedy’s expressed concerns about a nuclear arms race during the Cuban missile crisis in 1962 were prophetic. Sixty-three years later, there is real concern by a few non-nuclear-weapons states that they need their own nuclear weapons to address the threat from North Korea and Iran. It’s worsened by the rhetoric from Mr. Putin and Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, who warned that Russia is prepared to use nuclear weapons if it faces defeat in Ukraine.
• The author is a former associate director of national intelligence. All statements of fact, opinion or analysis expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official positions or views of the U.S. government. Nothing in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying U.S. government authentication of information or endorsement of the author’s views.
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