OPINION:
President Trump set this Friday, Aug. 8, as a deadline for Russia to make peace with Ukraine or face new sanctions. It’s entirely unlikely that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants any sort of peace in Ukraine and the prospect of secondary sanctions on Russia is problematic at best.
Russia, as usual, is threatening world war if it doesn’t get its way in Ukraine.
Mr. Putin has impliedly threatened nuclear war almost since his forces invaded Ukraine. In March 2023, he said he would deploy Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus, a Russian puppet state. In September 2024 he previewed a change in Russia’s nuclear policy that makes it easier to use nuclear weapons.
Mr. Putin made those changes effective in November 2024. They provide that if any non-nuclear state attacks Russia and is backed by a nuclear-armed state, it would be judged to be a “joint attack.” Thus, the U.S. backing of Ukraine would be judged a joint attack if Ukraine attacked Russia, which it has done many times in three-and-a-half years of war. The latest, an attack on Sochi (a major Russian oil export facility), has not been claimed by Ukraine (more about this in a moment).
Most recently, Russia’s former president, Dmitry Medvedev, has engaged in counter-threats with Mr. Trump. First, Mr. Medvedev said; Mr. Trump was (by virtue of his secondary sanctions threat) engaged in a war of ultimatums. He added that Russia still had its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal.
Mr. Trump, in one of his best moves as president, didn’t answer Mr. Medvedev directly. Instead, he moved two of our ballistic missile submarines into better positions to strike Russia. Mr. Putin knows that our ballistic missile subs are the deadliest part of our nuclear arsenal because, upon launch, Russia would have far less time to react to however many missiles penetrated its missile defenses.
Mr. Trump’s move was perfect strategically and entirely timely. There’s not much else Messrs. Messrs. Putin or Medvedev can say to that. But they still won’t declare peace with Ukraine.
As has been entirely clear for a long time, Mr. Putin won’t make peace with Ukraine unless and until he has achieved his military goals as defined by his philosopher, Alexander Dugin, in his book, “The Foundations of Geopolitics.” Mr. Dugin sees the only route to re-establishing the old Soviet Empire as requiring first the conquest of Ukraine.
One problem with Mr. Trump’s August 8 deadline is that Mr. Putin doesn’t want peace. The other is that Mr. Trump’s proposed secondary sanctions may not help.
India, China and Turkey (our least reliable NATO ally) are the biggest importers of Russian oil. We already know that China – also the biggest buyer of Iranian oil – is beyond our sanctions. India is the greatest challenge because India may be driven further into Russian influence if we impose secondary sanctions on its oil trade with Russia.
For decades, India had bought Russian arms, including fighter aircraft and missiles. Recently it has shifted to Western arms, including U.S. and French equipment. Its rationale is that it wants better technology and it judges the West to have more of what it wants. That could all come to a crashing halt if Mr. Trump imposes secondary sanctions on the Indian oil purchases from Russia.
India is not much in Mr. Trump’s favor at this point. He wrote on a social media post on Aug. 4 that “India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits. They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine.”
India, of course, objected to Mr. Trump’s strong words.
A trade agreement with India – which many U.S. trading partners have already signed – is hanging in the balance while Mr. Trump is threatening more tariffs. A U.S.-India trade agreement would benefit both nations, but as time drags on, that is less likely to occur.
That leaves Russia’s supply of oil to India hanging in the balance. India buys about 2 million barrels a day of oil from Russia at a discounted price. We don’t have the ability to fulfill India’s oil needs. So what should Mr. Trump do?
India is not likely to end its acquisition of Western weapon systems. It knows that Russian technology is not as advanced as those of NATO nations, as demonstrated by the Ukraine war. But there is no slack in India’s oil line. It is as energy-hungry as China.
Mr. Trump should keep pressing India – and Turkey – to not buy Russian oil. Secondary sanctions are the right way to go with Turkey, but a bigger and better trade deal with India, even accepting some of its Russian oil purchases, would be far more of a success.
• Jed Babbin is a national security and foreign affairs columnist for The Washington Times and a contributing editor for The American Spectator.
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