Rand Corp. analysts predict modest activity in Central Arctic Ocean over the next 25 years

The thinning and disappearance of sea ice has long heralded the promise of expanded commercial and military operations in the Arctic, but a new study by the Rand Corp. predicts only modest activity in the Central Arctic Ocean over the next 25 years.

Most activity in the Central Arctic Ocean will likely consist of light commercial shipping and tourism, according to the Rand report. If the CAO becomes ice-free in the summer, as several climate models predict, it would open a seasonally navigable route connecting Asia to Europe by crossing over the North Pole, the report states.

However, fishing in the CAO is prohibited until at least 2037, and the region will likely be of “limited commercial appeal” afterward. While fresh mining opportunities have been cited as an incentive to operate in the region, Rand analysts said mining will likely hold limited appeal because areas closer to shore offer raw products at a competitive cost.

The Rand report also notes “considerable uncertainty” about the potential impact deep-sea mining might have on the ocean ecosystem.

“This uncertainty has been a driver of Canada’s opposition to commercial seabed mining, both in areas under Canada’s jurisdiction and in the high seas,” according to the report. “Greenland, too, has prohibited deep-sea mining in its waters, and the Norwegian Parliament suspended its deep-sea mining exploration plans in December 2024.”

Ship traffic in the Arctic has increased over the last 20 years, as warming conditions in the higher latitudes have opened maritime routes previously considered to be impassable. Meanwhile, environmental groups regularly warn about the impact on nature of a greater human presence in the Arctic.

U.S. interests in the newly opened polar region have prompted the Coast Guard to increase its icebreaker fleet to protect American sovereignty, enforce laws and safeguard economic activities in the area.

“The actors best positioned to be first movers in the CAO will be those that have already planned and developed the capacity to operate in the region,” the Rand analysts wrote.

Growing activity in the Central Arctic Ocean also means new actors will push into Arctic states’ exclusive economic zones and even their territorial waters. That would increase the risk of security and safety hazards close to shore, Rand said.

“Uncertainty over how Arctic states may respond to these and other consequences of increasing marine access suggests the possibility of an expanded military and law enforcement presence in the CAO in the future,” according to the report.

Some non-Arctic countries like China, Japan and the European Union are signaling they have strategic and economic stakes in the CAO. The Rand analysts said it was reasonable to assume that they will closely follow developments in the area and consider whether a renewal of the Central Arctic Ocean Fisheries Agreement is in their strategic interests.

Despite the increased interest and activity in the Central Arctic Ocean region from Arctic and non-Arctic countries, the Rand analysts said they don’t expect a “war for resources” among CAO member states.

Not every state stands to gain equally from the opening of a commercially viable CAO. Russia would be seriously affected by the creation of a direct competitor to the Northern Sea Route, Rand researchers said.

“The risk of resource-driven geopolitical conflict in the CAO is limited, although accidental escalation is always possible,” according to the report. “Sustained activity in the CAO will depend on a robust presence of search and rescue and disaster response provisions. Reliable access to the CAO does not mean safe navigation in the CAO.”