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OPINION:
I’ll never forget the day I first arrived in Iraq in the autumn of 2006. The country was in turmoil, and the George W. Bush administration was dramatically shifting its failing strategy.
The U.S. had dissolved the Iraqi army and the Baath Party immediately after toppling Saddam Hussein, but it had failed to develop a post-conflict reconstruction plan before the invasion, and not enough American troops were in place to secure the country.
The missteps created the conditions for a Sunni insurgency, including al Qaeda terrorists who had the U.S. presence in the country and Iraq’s civilian population in their crosshairs. Recognizing the U.S. failure to secure Iraq, including its porous borders, Iran took advantage by funding and arming powerful proxy militias. These militias penetrated the Iraqi government ministries, rained down missiles on U.S. installations and terrorized Iraqi civilians.
In Iraq, we used to ask ourselves whether our strategy was to create more terrorists than we eliminated.
That’s why, more than three years into the war, Mr. Bush rightly challenged his assumptions and swiveled to a counterinsurgency strategy that gained the support and confidence of the local population while relentlessly targeting irreconcilable terrorists.
By the following summer, the security situation in Iraq had begun to improve to the point where there was some breathing room for political reconciliation and modest economic growth.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his national security team no doubt recognize that Israel is fighting an insurgency in the Gaza Strip. Hamas is losing on the battlefield. Israel has decimated Hamas leadership and eliminated thousands of Hamas fighters, but at such a great cost that Hamas is arguably winning the information war.
Gaza is almost entirely uninhabitable. The humanitarian crisis, which grows worse day by day, creates sympathy in the international community for the plight of Palestinian civilians, which supports Hamas’ strategic objectives.
The brutal urban warfare, which has brought so much death and destruction to Gaza, is like oxygen for Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists.
Israel’s Cabinet recently voted to expand the war in Gaza with a five-month offensive requiring the mobilization of thousands of Israel Defense Forces soldiers to capture Gaza City and eventually take full military control of the Gaza Strip after more forced evacuations of Palestinian civilians.
Mr. Netanyahu’s stated objectives are to defeat Hamas, release the hostages and ensure Gaza can never again be a threat to Israel. Israel’s plan after eliminating Hamas would be to turn Gaza over to undetermined Arab forces.
According to Just War Theory, Israel had the right to go to war after Hamas’ barbaric October 2023 terrorist attacks, but it is also responsible for the ethical conduct of the war and a postwar settlement to protect the civilian population as much as possible.
There has been disconcerting division within Mr. Netanyahu’s government.
IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir reportedly expressed concern about the impact on already stretched IDF forces of occupying more territory in Gaza and the negative impact on any hostage negotiations and rescue efforts.
Australia, France and Germany intend to recognize a state of Palestine during the upcoming United Nations General Assembly in September. Germany suspended Gaza-linked arms sales to Israel. The Arab League predictably condemned Israel’s policy.
Mr. Netanyahu desperately needs a new and more comprehensive strategy. He and his senior national security officials should start by reacquainting themselves with the lessons the U.S. learned from Iraq, especially the experience of now-retired former national security adviser Gen. H.R. McMaster, who proved the concept of counterinsurgency that Gen. David H. Petraeus would later implement superbly while commanding the 3rd Cavalry Regiment in Tal Afar from 2005 to 2006.
Israel should devise and implement its own robust counterinsurgency strategy that would seek to drive a wedge between Hamas terrorists and the civilian population. It should develop closer coordination with Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, and outline a realistic plan that includes empowering reconcilable Palestinian leaders and factions for Gaza’s economic reconstruction and political future.
Greater international support for Israel’s conduct of the war could translate into much-needed financial, military and diplomatic support.
The stakes could not be higher, not just for Israel but also for the region and beyond. Israel cannot afford a never-ending war, which results in further reputational damage by alienating its government in the international community, especially the Middle East, where prospects for an expanded Abraham Accords grow dimmer by the day.
Most of all, the last thing the region needs is a new generation of radicalized Palestinians who would obstruct any future endeavors to build a lasting peace.
• Daniel N. Hoffman is a retired clandestine services officer and former chief of station with the Central Intelligence Agency. His combined 30 years of government service included high-level overseas and domestic positions at the CIA. He has been a Fox News contributor since May 2018. He can be reached at danielhoffman@yahoo.com.
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