Is Beto back? Poll shows O’Rourke leads Democratic Senate primary race in Texas

Betomania is running hog wild once again in Texas.

Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, who ran an unconventional Senate campaign that nearly upset Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018 and set the stage for a failed presidential bid, has risen from the ashes.

The 52-year-old now appears well-positioned to shake up the Democratic Senate primary, according to a new poll showing he would be the party’s preferred standard-bearer if he enters the race for Republican Sen. John Cornyn’s seat.

The Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University released a survey of likely 2026 primary voters on Tuesday, showing Mr. O’Rourke has a 58% to 38% lead over former Rep. Colin Allred, 42, who announced last month that he is running, after falling short last year against Mr. Cruz, 54.

The remaining likely primary voters surveyed are undecided.

“For many Texas Democratic primary voters, Beto is the type of Democrat that they feel the party needs at present. That is, one who’s more charismatic, who’s more progressive, and is more willing to openly, openly challenge Donald Trump at the national level and Texas Republicans at the local level,” said Rice University political science professor Mark Jones, who co-directed the poll. “Given how popular Beto is, given the money he has, if he really wants to do it, then he probably is in the pole position.”

Democrats have not won a statewide office since 1994. Whoever emerges as the party’s Senate nominee will face an uphill battle.

Still, Democrats are optimistic that their odds of winning will climb if Mr. Cornyn, 73, loses the Republican primary race to Attorney General Ken Paxton, a 62-year-old conservative firebrand who has never run in a fiercely contested, big-dollar, general election race.

Mr. Paxton appears ready to test that theory.

The survey showed Mr. Cornyn is trailing Mr. Paxton in the GOP Senate primary race, by 44% to 39%. The veteran lawmaker and staple of Texas politics has trailed Mr. Paxton in most early polls.

In a potential three-way race that includes 43-year-old Rep. Wesley Hunt, Mr. Paxton holds a 35% to 30% over Mr. Cornyn with Mr. Hunt at 22%. 

The remaining voters in each matchup were up for grabs.

On the Democratic side, Mr. Allred did hold a 50% to 43% edge over 36-year-old state Rep. James Talarico, who has been raising his profile, and 52% to 41% lead over Rep. Joaquin Castro, 50, in potential one-on-one matchups.

The O’Rourke findings are also a potential bad omen for Mr. Allred, who offers voters a more centrist brand of Democratic politics that could be more attractive to moderate Republicans who cannot stomach Mr. Paxton but less appealing to left-wing activists looking to fight with Mr. Trump and Republicans.

Mr. Allred, a professional football player, is running strongest among men, White voters, the 55-plus crowd, and people with 4-year college degrees.

But Mr. O’Rourke still leads him among each of those electoral cohorts. 

Mr. O’Rourke also had sizable advantages among women, Hispanics, younger people, and people without college degrees.

Mr. O’Rourke recently stepped back into the spotlight in the fight over Trump-led push to have the Republican-controlled legislature redraw the states’ congressional maps to help the GOP gain at least five seats in the midterm elections.

Mr. O’Rourke and his political organization, Powered by People, raised over $1 million for the state Democratic lawmakers who fled Texas amid the redistricting battle.

The effort drew the ire of Mr. Paxton, who sued Mr. O’Rourke and won a temporary restraining order against the fundraising push. 

Mr. O’Rourke thumbed his nose at the initial order, urging a crowd at a rally the following day to donate to the runaway Democrats.

“He is trying to stop us from raising the resources they need to ultimately prevail and come through, and we are not going to let him stop us,” Mr. O’Rourke said of Mr. Paxton.

Mr. O’Rourke said he cannot sit idly by as so many Americans, universities, and billionaires bend the knee before Mr. Trump, whom he called a “would-be tyrant.”

“He doesn’t understand in Texas, our knees do not bend,” Mr. O’Rourke said. “We are going to fight these m—————-s as long as it takes, with everything we’ve got. We are never giving in, we are never giving up, and we are never bending the knee.”

On Monday, the state’s Democratic lawmakers returned to Austin, allowing the legislature to reach quorum and begin work on new maps.

The Texas Southern University poll included 1,500 likely Republican primary voters and 1,500 likely Democratic primary voters. 

The surveys were conducted between Aug. 6 and Aug. 12 and have a margin of error of 2.53 percentage points.