How Republicans can win the midterms

OPINION:

President Trump recently completed the most successful first six months of any term in history. Democrats don’t seem to have a game plan to counter his agenda. That said, midterm elections are tough and looming.

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is the centerpiece of the president’s success since Jan. 20. It includes the largest tax cut in American history, increasing Americans’ take-home pay by as much as $13,300. It also eliminates government benefits for illegal aliens and limits Medicaid to needy families, children and seniors.

Congress also passed Mr. Trump’s plan to cut $9 billion in wasteful government spending by axing funds for foreign aid scams and biased public broadcasting. Hopefully, it is the beginning of a much larger reduction in spending at the federal level.

The economy continues to grow, with a net increase of more than 670,000 jobs since January. Prices are declining, with the cost of a dozen eggs down 53% since the inauguration. Summer gas prices are the lowest since 2021.

Gaining control of the border has been the most significant success for the Trump administration. In June, zero illegal aliens were released into the United States. Compare that with June 2024, when 27,766 were released on the Biden administration’s watch amid the yearslong border crisis.

In addition to stopping the flow of illegal aliens into the U.S. interior, the Trump administration has removed more than 600 known and suspected terrorists from the country as part of the deportation efforts.

Cutting government red tape is helping lower costs for consumers and employers nationwide. Unleashing American energy is having short- and long-term success.

Echoing President Reagan’s policy of peace through strength, Mr. Trump is keeping us out of endless wars while blocking Iran from having nuclear weapons. His leadership has led to numerous peace agreements, with more on the horizon.

Presidential executive orders are keeping men out of women’s sports and protecting minors from chemical and surgical mutilation. Mr. Trump is also protecting Jewish students on campuses across the country, ending censorship and stopping racial discrimination through woke programs.

In contrast, Democrats do not appear to have a plan to counter Mr. Trump’s agenda, except to complain every time he says or does something. That said, they are still likely to pick up seats in the midterm elections.

Forty years ago, Republicans lost seats in the midterm elections even after Reagan’s historic reelection in 1984. However, the elections in 2026 could be somewhat different for various reasons.

The map of states with Senate races in 2026 favors Republicans. Democrats need to pick up four seats to retake the majority. Most of the races in 2026 are in states that Mr. Trump won easily in 2024.

Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina are considered to be “toss-ups.” Maine is considered to “lean Republican” because Sen. Susan M. Collins is running for reelection in the state that former Vice President Kamala Harris carried in November. The race could move to “toss-up” if Gov. Janet Mills gets in.

Mr. Trump carried Michigan, and Sen. Gary C. Peters announced he is not running for reelection. Former Rep. Mike Rogers is running again. In 2024, he fell short of victory by just three-tenths of a point.

Georgia is another state where Republican leaders are optimistic about picking up a Senate seat. Gov. Brian Kemp and the statewide Republican ticket won impressive victories in 2022. Mr. Trump carried the state by more than 2 percentage points in November.

Democrats did pick up a prime candidate by recruiting former Gov. Roy Cooper to run for the Senate seat in North Carolina. That said, I traveled the state with Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, who will be an excellent candidate. He should keep it red.

Liberals consistently claim that Texas is turning blue, but recent elections don’t support that contention. That said, a nasty Republican primary could make the general election more competitive. Just as important, it could draw money away from races where the Republicans could pick up a seat.

The chances of Republicans holding the majority in the House of Representatives, however, are much tighter than in the Senate. Since World War II, the president’s party has lost congressional seats in 18 of the 20 midterm elections.

To hold the House, Republicans must be aggressive on several key issues: prices and the economy, border security and public safety, and cultural issues such as protecting women’s sports.

Mr. Trump has fulfilled most of his campaign promises. In a world where voters are cynical about politicians breaking their pledges, those aligned with the president can point to big wins.

The largest area of uncertainty for voters is the economy. If prices drop and jobs are plentiful, Republican wins will be likely in 2026. The president and congressional Republicans need to focus like a laser beam on the three T’s: taxes, trade and terrible government spending.

If they get those right, prices will go down and they can hold the House, Senate and White House in 2026.

• Scott Walker is a columnist for The Washington Times. He was the 45th governor of Wisconsin and launched a bid for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. He lives in Milwaukee and is the proud owner of a 2003 Harley-Davidson Road King. He can be reached at swalker@washingtontimes.com.