Trump tariff revenue jumps to $25B monthly as inflation holds steady

President Trump’s tariffs are fattening federal coffers.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a bipartisan group that has criticized the Trump administration and its predecessors for not doing more to address national deficits, reported that the monthly tariff revenue in July jumped to $25 billion, up from $7 billion a year ago.

The budget hawks estimated that by the end of Mr. Trump’s term, the tariffs pushed by his administration would bring in $1.3 trillion “before accounting for economic effects.”

“Importantly, our estimates are very rough and intended to reflect the general magnitude of the policies rather than precise scores, given the complexity of the tariffs and their impacts,” the committee said in its analysis. “Estimates also exclude macroeconomic effects, which could reduce the net (real) deficit reduction from tariffs to the extent they lead to slower growth and higher inflation.”

Analysts said the additional revenue won’t be enough to offset Mr. Trump’s signature One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which extended tax cuts, increased spending on the border and the military and established new eligibility requirements on Medicaid recipients.

The law is expected to add to the national debt.

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SEE ALSO: Inflation holds steady as Trump ramps up new tariffs

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Still, analysts with the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said the tariff hikes are “likely to meaningfully reduce deficits if allowed to remain in effect.”

Mr. Trump has faced blowback over his tariffs, which are taxes imposed on foreign products brought into U.S. markets. Tariff costs might be passed along to consumers, though the levies haven’t fueled the level of inflation that critics feared.

Prices rose 0.2% in July, or 2.7% year over year, matching the level recorded for the 12 months ended June, according to the Consumer Price Index released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“It has been proven, that even at this late stage, Tariffs have not caused Inflation, or any other problems for America, other than massive amounts of CASH pouring into our Treasury’s coffers,” Mr. Trump wrote Tuesday on Truth Social.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget said U.S. tariffs generated about $3 billion monthly before Mr. Trump’s first term in office.

That grew to $7 billion after Mr. Trump raised tariffs during his first term, including on Chinese goods, steel and aluminum.

All told, tariffs have raised nearly $130 billion this year, well over twice the amount of tariff revenue collected at this point last year, according to the Penn Wharton Budget Model.

The path forward regarding tariff revenue and potential consumer pain is fuzzy. Mr. Trump only recently implemented his most ambitious plans.

Last week, the president imposed 15% to 41% tariffs on more than 67 countries, raising levies to their highest levels in more than a century. He has solidified the 10% blanket tariff on all imports and is implementing the 15% rate he negotiated with trading partners such as the European Union, Japan and South Korea.

The National Retail Federation and footwear industry lobbies have urged the Trump administration to moderate tariff levels. They said absorbing the costs would be difficult.

Any price increases “should begin to show up in August and September’s readings, depending on how people react to them,” said Ryan Young, a senior economist at the Competitive Enterprise Institute. “Each tariff will cause a one-time jump in CPI when it phases in, rather than the sustained increase that comes from continuous deficit spending or too-loose monetary policy.”

The July consumer price index report was the first major Bureau of Labor Statistics filing since Mr. Trump fired its leader, Erika McEntarfer, over disappointing job numbers that he called rigged.

Mr. Trump said he is nominating E.J. Antoni, an economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation who has criticized the methodology, to lead the bureau.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% in July and 3.1% year over year.

It was the first time since February that it grew more than 3% annually, so some economists and congressional critics saw it as a sign that companies were starting to pass along tariff costs to consumers.

“President Trump promised to lower costs on Day 1. Instead, his failed economic policies continue to drive up prices for Americans,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts Democrat and ranking member on the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee.

Still, inflation remains mild compared with doomsday predictions earlier in the year, emboldening Mr. Trump.

The president says tariffs, beyond revenue, give him leverage in dealmaking with foreign countries. Ultimately, he hopes the tariffs prod companies to make products in the U.S. instead of overseas.

In the meantime, he is pressing the Fed to cut interest rates so American borrowers have more favorable terms.

Federal Reserve officials will meet in September to consider interest rates. Chair Jerome Powell and others at the Fed have resisted Mr. Trump’s calls for lower rates.

“Fortunately, the economy is sooo good that we’ve blown through Powell and the complacent Board,” Mr. Trump said on Truth Social.

Although the president has stopped short of trying to fire Mr. Powell, he is making life miserable for the chair.

Most recently, Mr. Trump highlighted the cost of a renovation project at the Fed’s building in Washington.

The president posted Tuesday that he was “considering allowing a major lawsuit against Powell to proceed because of the horrible, and grossly incompetent, job he has done in managing the construction of the Fed Buildings.”

“Three Billion Dollars for a job that should have been a $50 Million Dollar fix up. Not good!”