Putin only understands strength: Time for Trump to show it

OPINION:

A year ago, amid indications that Iran’s rulers were preparing to launch a direct attack on Israel, President Biden publicly warned them: “Don’t!”

But Iran’s rulers did.

Neither fearing nor respecting Mr. Biden, they launched more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel. The extent of death and destruction would have been enormous had Israel’s air defense systems, with U.S. and other support, not intercepted almost all the projectiles before they reached their intended victims.

I was reminded of this battle last week after Russian President Vladimir Putin fired 70 missiles and 145 drones at Ukraine, targeting residential buildings in Kyiv. At least a dozen people were killed and nearly 100 injured, many trapped beneath rubble.

On Thursday, President Trump wrote on Truth Social: “I am not happy with the Russian strikes on KYIV. Not necessary, and very bad timing. Vladimir, STOP! 5000 soldiers a week are dying. Let’s get the Peace Deal DONE!”

This raises the question of whether Mr. Putin fears and respects Mr. Trump.

On Friday, a Russian drone struck an apartment building in the Ukrainian city of Pavlohrad, killing three people, one of them a child.

Mr. Trump posted: “There was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days. It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary sanctions?’ Too many people are dying!!!”

Sen. Lindsey Graham agrees. On Saturday, he posted on X: “As to additional sanctions on Putin’s Russia, I have bipartisan legislation with almost 60 cosponsors that would put secondary tariffs on any country that purchases Russian oil, gas, uranium, or other products.”

The message passing such legislation would send could be emphasized by increasing the military aid Ukrainians need to defend themselves, such as Patriot air defense systems, and to reduce Russian military capabilities, such as the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS).

America’s European friends can pay for these American munitions using their own money or roughly $300 billion in frozen Russian funds.

Another possibility would be a lend-lease program with Ukrainian minerals as collateral.

I’ll also remind you that over the past three years, less than 3% of the Pentagon budget has gone to helping the Ukrainians degrade the military power of America’s second-ranked adversary. Can you name a better return on investment?

Meanwhile, Russia has been receiving drones and missiles from the Islamist regime in Tehran, KN-23 ballistic missiles from the dynastic dictatorship in North Korea and critical military technologies from the communist regime in Beijing.

These authoritarian states don’t hate Ukrainians. They simply recognize that if Mr. Putin can use military force to crush a pro-American neighbor, that will set a precedent for similar aggressions against their American-allied neighbors.

During an impromptu meeting with Mr. Trump on Saturday at the Vatican, where both were attending Pope Francis’ funeral, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated his desire for a “full and unconditional ceasefire.”

That would halt the carnage to which Mr. Trump so justifiably objects and could lead to a long-range truce.

Korea provides a model. The war between the North and the South never ended; it has just been on ice for more than 70 years.

Over that period, South Korea evolved into an economically vibrant and democratic ally of the U.S.

North Korea, by contrast, remains a hellhole, albeit a hellhole that possesses nuclear weapons thanks to U.S. diplomats who overvalued their persuasive skills and undervalued American power.

Let’s be clear about what a Russian-Ukrainian armistice would entail.

No one seriously expects Mr. Putin to give up the eastern Ukrainian lands he invaded and now occupies, much less Crimea, which he invaded and annexed in 2014.

It would be a mistake to formally recognize Russia’s erasure of international borders by military aggression, a fundamental principle of international law established and defended by the United States for generations.

It’s also unrealistic to think Ukraine can join NATO anytime soon. A unanimous vote by all existing members would be required, which is not likely.

However, Ukraine should not be prohibited from applying for membership because that would imply that Ukraine is, as Mr. Putin insists, a Russian possession rather than an independent and sovereign nation-state with the right to seek defense alliances as its elected leaders see fit.

Mr. Trump has found brokering a Moscow-Kyiv deal frustrating and warned that he might walk away, but he also said last week: “I want to save a lot of lives!”

His advisers should remind him that if he ends U.S. intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and cuts off military aid, Mr. Putin will slaughter many more Ukrainian men, women and children.

It’s lovely to think everyone prizes peace, but if that were true, Mr. Putin wouldn’t have begun this war and would have sought an “offramp” when it became clear that the Ukrainians would fight like wolverines rather than surrender their freedom.

Nor is Mr. Putin crying salty tears over his troops ending up as cannon fodder. That’s a price he is more than willing to pay to drag Ukraine back into the Russian empire.

Should he succeed, expect him to press bayonets to the backs of Ukrainian soldiers and order them to march west.

Our European friends understand that. On Friday, Reuters published a Ukraine-European proposal that would include a “full, unconditional ceasefire in the sky, on land, and at sea.”

Mr. Trump can get this “Deal DONE!” He has the cards. By playing them now, he will also make clear that he won’t be “tapped along.”

• Clifford D. May is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a columnist for The Washington Times and host of the “Foreign Policy” podcast.