The stupidity of guessing deaths

OPINION:

A study from the far-left Centers for American Progress concluded with this title: “Congressional Republicans’ Proposals To Slash Medicaid Could Cost Tens of Thousands of Lives.”

Or could not.

Either-or.

Maybe, maybe not.

Welcome to science and sound argument, Democrat style. All hype, zero dependable data. The utter fallacy of arguing a point based on who and how many might die gets pushed aside for a flashy headline, a carefully crafted social media post, a strategically worded bullet point, then disbursed to the list of preferred pundits to take to national media and jab, jab, jab at the latest Trump administration agenda.

Republicans are trying to weed out waste and fraud in Medicaid. 

So Democrats need some — quick, quick now, be quick about it, please — talking points to fight. 

Problem is the Democrats go about it so deceptively and dishonestly.

Here are a few Medicaid facts, collected by The Wall Street Journal: About 1 in 5 Americans rely on Medicaid for at least part of their health care. That’s quite a large population, given that the program was originally intended to provide temporary services to low-income parents and their children; the handicapped; and the elderly. It’s supposed to be funded by both the feds and states. But in 2010, Barack Obama, seeking to expand his Obamacare, gave states the right to enroll those whose incomes went as high as 130 percent of the federal poverty line. Forty or so states did this, resulting in a massive uptick of another 20 million who were covered under Medicaid. In 2023, the federal government — taxpayers — provided about 69 percent, or $606 billion, of that year’s total $870 billion of Medicaid funding.

President Trump has recently tasked the congressional committee that oversees Medicaid to come up with $880 billion in cuts over 10 years. How? Republicans are focusing on reducing the federal portion of Medicaid funding; adding or reinforcing existing work requirements on Medicaid recipients; and identifying and then cutting wasteful and fraudulent expenditures in the program. Some analysts estimate that just focusing on the uptick years that began with Obama’s 2010 expansion could lead to savings of $561 billion over the next decade.

The details are being decided.

The specifics are being worked.

But Democrats — Democrats who pretend they care about the little guy, at least when campaign season comes a’callin’ — Democrats who profess concern for the poor and downtrodden, at least when the claim can result in political dings to Republicans — Democrats say such cuts, such considerations of cuts, will result in deaths.

“Medicaid cuts would result in widespread coverage losses, which could lead to 15,400 deaths due to work reporting requirements or roughly 34,200 deaths from reduced federal funding each year,” the Center of American Progress wrote.

People will die. People will die. People will die.

It’s the same argument Democrats used to force COVID shots into the arms and masks on the faces of Americans. It’s the same narrative Democrats sold during the COVID years to shut down schools, shut down businesses, shut down travel, shut down churches.

“Fauci Estimates That 100,000 To 200,000 Americans Could Die From The Coronavirus,” NPR wrote in March of 2020.

That was after Bill Gates in February of that same year “warns of 10 million deaths as coronavirus spreads to Africa.”

People will die, people will die, people will die.

But don’t people die anyway?

Claiming specific numbers of lives saved or lost from certain medical procedures, medical coverage and medical treatments seems risky figuring at best; manipulative and deceptive, at worst. After all, only God knows the time and date a life expires.

“If Congress shrinks the enhanced FMAP [Federal Medical Assistance Percentage] and states respond by eliminating their Medicaid expansions in 2026, 15.9 million people would lose their coverage and, as a result, 10.8 million would become uninsured, according to estimates from the Urban Institute. A 2017 study by health economist Benjamin D. Sommers found that Medicaid expansion was associated with ‘one life saved annually for every 239 to 316 adults gaining insurance.’ Applying the more conservative end of Sommers’ range to Urban’s projection of 10.8 million more uninsured, CAP [Center for American Progress] estimates that cutting the enhanced FMAP for expansion enrollees would lead to about 34,200 deaths each year,” the Center for American Progress wrote.

Not 34,199.

Not 34,202.

But 34,200.

It doesn’t matter how many studies are shown, or bits of data are quoted, or scholarly experts are cited — in the end, projections of deaths and lives saved are largely bunk. And using such projections to advance a legislative narrative is the lowest of the low; it exploits ignorance and drives fear, all to score political wins for the unprincipled and morally bankrupt.

They sure do make for great hysterical headlines for the Democrats, though.

• Cheryl Chumley can be reached at cchumley@washingtontimes.com or on Twitter, @ckchumley. Listen to her podcast “Bold and Blunt” by clicking HERE. And never miss her column; subscribe to her newsletter and podcast by clicking HERE. Her latest book, “God-Given Or Bust: Defeating Marxism and Saving America With Biblical Truths,” is available by clicking HERE.