China and Russia’s tactics threaten global security

OPINION:

The 80th anniversary of the historic meeting between American and Soviet troops who shook hands at Germany’s Elbe River on April 25, 1945, will likely generate little diplomatic goodwill between the U.S. and Russia this year, particularly given Russia’s continued barbaric war to claim Ukraine and lack of interest to negotiate a meaningful peace deal.

My maternal grandfather fought close to that location as a famous member of the 69th Infantry Division. By December 1944, his brother had earned an air medal with an oak-leaf cluster piloting a B-25 Mitchell bomber in the 10th Air Force, 12th Bombardment Group in the China Burma India theater of operations. The gathering of these armies was marked by handshakes, dancing, drinking and fraternizing that are well documented.

Unfortunately, the festive occasion that day quickly deteriorated into the beginnings of a postwar Cold War that led to an American foreign policy of containment, articulated in 1945 by U.S. Foreign Service Officer George Kennan. The Elbe River anniversary was last commemorated by both countries in 2020 when President Trump and Russian ruler Vladimir Putin issued a joint statement. This was preceded in 2010 by President Obama and Russian ruler Dmitry Medvedev when they marked the 65th anniversary.

When Mr. Obama spoke about the historic event, he quoted a reporter who was there in 1945: “If there is a fine, splendid world in the future, it will largely be because the United States and Russia get on well together. If it is in trouble, it will be because they don’t get on well. It’s as simple as that.”

Today, however, we must include China in that statement, given that these two communist countries have recalibrated their alignment to tactically and strategically challenge the U.S. Mr. Putin has pursued an aggressive anti-West foreign policy centered on redefining Russian influence and territory since his accession to power.

Using what I would call the “vodka” technique, like a gradual progression of shots to consume the bottle, Russia has taken small, measured steps and pursued tactics in the world arena to fracture or undermine the NATO alliance, to minimize or check U.S. leadership on the world stage, to demonstrate Russia’s ability to act even when sanctioned, and to create favorable counternarratives for the Russian citizenry and communist aligned countries. The invasions of Georgia, Crimea and Ukraine were certainly larger-scale operations but were executed with the expectation of quick victories. More recently, this technique was enhanced and ramped up in what security experts call the “gray zone,” including sabotage operations such as cutting data cables, arson attacks, or cyberoperations.

Each action is intended to maximize the capability to effect a favorable outcome against adversaries, such as the U.S. or a NATO member, and avoid a significant military confrontation. China has equally embraced gray zone tactics, such as harassing maritime activity in the South China Sea and around Taiwan, running illegal Chinese Ministry of Public Security police stations in the U.S. targeting dissidents, or turning a blind eye to Chinese criminal elements that collaborate with Mexican drug cartels to produce fentanyl or to launder their drug proceeds.

China has also unleashed waves of sophisticated cyberoperations, such as the 2014 data breach of the Office of Personnel Management and, more recently, Salt Typhoon, which penetrated the networks of almost all U.S. telecommunications companies. To make matters worse, China has accelerated and, in some cases, publicly demonstrated its capabilities in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, hypersonic missiles, space infrastructure and quantum computing to lead in these fields, challenge U.S. superiority and influence world governing bodies.

Unfortunately, the U.S. and other Western nations focused too much on a globalization strategy that used the fixed bayonets of trade, finance and investment to help strengthen ties to Russia and China, hoping for a return on investment equated to peace that would produce beneficial agreements and outcomes.

The U.S. and its allies have overly fed these countries at the globalization trough. Although some corrective actions have been taken over the years and even more recently, additional steps must be implemented to limit their diet of American and Western capitalism and investment. Furthermore, more must be done to counter their espionage and offensive cyberoperations targeting our citizens, government and private-sector companies. Our elites, academics, innovators, investors and politicians must understand that they need to apply a persistent stare on these countries every day in all levels of their work and determine how they can counter the communist threat.

This is not about re-creating a Red Scare but instead about a collective conscience decision to be more aware of what these countries can and are likely to do to weaken our democracy and Western values. Therefore, it is not enough that our intelligence community fights in the shadows or takes discrete actions to challenge Russia and China.

The Greatest Generation won World War II with immeasurable sacrifice, and that same resolve is most needed now as the U.S. faces off against these two adversaries that are willing to sacrifice even more to the point of harming their people if it means protecting their corrupt government systems while diminishing our way of life.

• Mike Cinnamon is a retired CIA officer.