‘Alarm bells should be going off’: Will the U.S. allow Iran to keep its nuclear program?

“Expert-level” technical talks on a new U.S.-Iran nuclear deal could signal that the Trump administration is willing to move away from its position that Tehran must give up all uranium enrichment capabilities and could allow Tehran to keep its nuclear program operating in some form, some specialists warn.

The next round of talks, scheduled for Saturday in Oman, is expected to include more detailed discussions about the parameters of a deal that centers on restrictions to Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. Both nations said U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made significant progress during the past weekend’s indirect talks, which led to the upcoming discussions between high-level experts from each nation.

Some analysts say the trajectory of the U.S.-Iran negotiations is a serious cause for concern. Mr. Witkoff has publicly said that any deal must include the elimination of Iran’s nuclear enrichment. The meeting of experts, however, suggests discussions on specific percentages around Iran’s uranium enrichment and other highly technical matters, not the permanent end to Tehran’s nuclear program.

“I think alarm bells should be going off,” said Andrea Stricker, deputy director of the Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “When we’re getting to the technical level and they’re working out the technical terms of the deal, that means things have progressed to that level. If the administration is not sticking to its demand for the full, verifiable and permanent dismantlement of Iran’s enrichment capability, its weaponization program and missile-delivery work, I think it could show they have already folded on that key demand.

“There’s no good deal that allows Iran to keep enriching uranium,” Ms. Stricker said in an interview. “Successive U.S. administrations are finding short-term fixes to a long-term problem. Unless that enrichment infrastructure and their ability to make that nuclear fuel is eliminated, all the centrifuges and all the enriched uranium, that threat remains.”

The administration was tight-lipped Tuesday about the specifics of negotiations.

“If it involves, of course, negotiations, diplomatic considerations, diplomatic conversations here between American leaders, I’m not going to remark on that,” State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce told reporters when asked about the upcoming U.S.-Iran talks. “As far as what might be next, I have nothing new to report to you at this point.”

What will the U.S. accept?

Some national security circles fear that the administration may be opening the door to a deal that, in some ways, resembles the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. The agreement allowed Iran to maintain its nuclear program but put significant restrictions on uranium enrichment, the spinning of centrifuges and other aspects of the program.

The JCPOA limited Iran’s uranium enrichment to 3.67%, enough for nuclear power but not enough for a weapon. Today, Iran enriches uranium up to 60%, which is a short, technical step away from the weapons-grade level of 90%. A February report from the International Atomic Energy Agency said Iran has a stockpile of more than 18,000 pounds of uranium.

President Trump pulled the U.S. out of the JCPOA during his first term. He said it left open pathways for Iran to acquire a nuclear bomb and did not address Tehran’s support for terrorist groups, among other shortcomings.

Last week, ahead of his second round of talks with the Iranians, Mr. Witkoff laid out the clear goal for the U.S.

“A deal with Iran will only be completed if it is a Trump deal. Any final arrangement must set a framework for peace, stability and prosperity in the Middle East — meaning that Iran must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization program,” Mr. Witkoff posted on X. “It is imperative for the world that we create a tough, fair deal that will endure, and that is what President Trump has asked me to do.”

Some analysts say Iran wouldn’t be coming back to the table with its expert-level team if the administration had insisted on the full, permanent end to its nuclear enrichment.

“If Witkoff was making maximalist demands during his talks with Araghchi, such as dismantlement of the enrichment program, Iran would have no incentive to meet at the technical level,” Kelsey Davenport, the director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, told The Associated Press this week.

The negotiators have given no clear indication that Iran’s ballistic missile program or its support for terrorist groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah are under serious discussion.

Iran has economic incentives to strike a deal. Some specialists say the country is in dire need of an economic boost from the lifting of U.S. sanctions.

The only real motivation for Iran to give up its nuclear program entirely is the prospect of direct U.S. and Israeli military action, Ms. Stricker said.

“It has to be between military action or a deal,” she said. The administration “needs to make that trade-off very clear, that it is survival for the regime and maybe some kind of sanctions relief, or we’re going to remove that threat militarily.”