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OPINION:
One revelation in leaked Signal war council chat: NATO’s European militaries don’t have the technological power to defeat the terrorist Houthis in Yemen and reopen the Red Sea to commercial shipping.
They need the United States, the Trump team said, because the ragtag Houthi terrorist army has collected stockpiles of advanced anti-ship weaponry that Europe cannot counter.
This verdict guided President Trump and top national security officials to plan and unleash on March 15 a wave of missile and bomb strikes on Iran’s proxy. As a backdrop, President Biden freed up billions of dollars for terrorist-sponsoring Iran, enabling the repressive Islamic regime to respread weapons to Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis.
Houthi rebels have become so sophisticated in weaponry that National Security Adviser Michael Waltz issued his assessment during the two-day high-powered Signal group discussion before the first Navy F-18 launched. The group, topped by Vice President J.D. Vance and including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the CIA and national intelligence directors, debated whether to strike immediately or days later.
“Whether we pull the plug or not today European naives do not have the capability to defend against the types of sophisticated, anti-ship, cruise missiles, and drones the Houthis are now using,” Mr. Waltz texted to colleagues. “So whether it’s now or several weeks from now, it will have to be the United States that reopens these shipping lanes. Per the president’s request we are working with DoD and State to determine how to compile the cost associated and levy them on Europeans.”
Mr. Waltz’s assessment buttresses the commander in chief’s complaint about NATO’s European members in an actual war. They are not keeping up. They fall short on defense in favor of social welfare, knowing Uncle Sam will bail them out, essentially subsidizing their domestic spending.
European nations, which exceed the U.S. population, have increased defense spending 10 years in a row to $457 billion, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The U.S.: $895 billion in fiscal 2025.
The legendary British Royal Navy says it remains a potent force.
“The Royal Navy boasts a formidable fleet of warships and advanced weaponry, ready to confront any adversary or global threat,” its homepage states. “With aircraft carriers, assault ships, patrol boats, and survey vessels, our ships are equipped to handle diverse challenges.”
The numbers tell a different story. The force is shrinking. At 29,000 full-time personnel, down from 38,880 15 years ago, it could not fill a football stadium, much less project power in multiple international sea lanes. Britain sails 62 surface ships and submarines, down from 76 a decade ago.
BairdMaritime.com, which reports on commercial and military sea operations worldwide, issued a scathing review in September.
“The UK Royal Navy (RN), for generations the world’s strongest maritime force, has been in near-precipitous decline for the past 20 years,” analyst Trevor Hollingsbee wrote. “Underfunding, as successive governments gave increased priority to welfare spending, as well as rampant inflation of the cost of defense equipment, poor strategic decisions, and major recruitment difficulties have all played their part in this decline. This near-perfect storm of problems has resulted in a force that is a faint echo of its former self.”
Meanwhile, the Wilson Center in 2024 gave a historical narration on the enemy.
“Iran has smuggled increasingly sophisticated weapons to the Houthis in Yemen since at least 2009,” said the report. “By 2015, the Qods Force, the external operations arm of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, were sending missile components for local assembly. The weapons — along with training and military advisors — helped transform the scrappy tribal militia into a well-armed and disciplined fighting force.”
Before Mr. Trump ordered a weeks-long barrage, the Houthis had a deep arsenal of weapons featuring anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles, most coming from benefactor Iran but also China and Russia. Among their “suicide” attack drones is the Iranian Ababil-T.
The U.S. Navy operates sophisticated radar to track each launch. Its aircraft carriers and guided missile destroyers intercept missiles and drones with F-18 fighters, surface-to-air missiles and 5-inch guns.
By 2024, Houthis had attacked the U.S. Navy and commercial ships more than 190 times since October 2023 when Hamas massacred Jews in southern Israel, according to The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Most missed or were intercepted, but some did damage. By January, commercial container ship and tanker traffic plunged by 80% as vessels were forced to take the long route around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope.
The Biden administration periodically struck Houthi missile launchers, but Mr. Trump inherited a war theater with the Red Sea all but closed. He gave U.S. Central Command a freer hand in ordering attacks on the spot.
Overall, European NATO is not ready to fight the Houthis or Russia.
“The West runs a defense industry built for peacetime,” said a 2024 Hudson Institute analysis. “War games have shown that if a large-scale conflict were to erupt in Europe, the UK would exhaust its existing arsenal in a little over one week.”
On Signal, Mr. Vance dissented from an urgent need to attack, according to a chat transcript obtained by The Atlantic Editor-in-Chief Jeffrey Goldberg. Mr. Vance is the man who went to Europe in February and scolded the European Union for stifling free speech and welcoming mass immigration of Islamists who hate the West.
“I think we are making a mistake,” Mr. Vance texted. “The strongest reason to do this is, as [Mr. Trump] said, to send a message. But I am not sure the president is aware how inconsistent this is with his message on Europe right now. … There is a strong argument for delaying this a month.”
He told Mr. Hegseth, “If you think we should do it let’s go. I just hate bailing Europe out again.”
The Signal conference continued during the first attack wave at around noon Washington time.
Mr. Waltz: “The first target, their missile guy, we had positive ID of him walking into his girlfriend’s building and it’s now collapsed.”
Mr. Vance: “Excellent.”
• Rowan Scarborough is a columnist with The Washington Times.
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