OPINION:
In April, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported that the general fertility rate — the number of live births per 1,000 women — was at its lowest level in history.
Our nation’s fertility rate stands at 54.5 live births per 1,000 women, well below replacement level. This puts ever-increasing pressure on programs such as Social Security, Medicare and pensions since not enough people are paying into the system to cover the expenditures going out.
Writing for Newsweek, Jordan King, commented last week on a recent survey done in conjunction with the Independent Center, “One in three Gen Zers and millennials do not have or do not want to have children.”
The survey found that not only do 30% of Generation Z members and millennials did not have or want to have children, but 23% thought it was irresponsible to do so because of climate change.
These numbers should alarm all of us as we face a rapidly aging population dependent upon younger generations for familial and financial support and a lack of young workers to sustain our economy.
This lack of current and future births has ramifications for all aspects of our society, including education.
Jay Greene of The Heritage Foundation recently wrote:
“We are about to experience a baby bust on steroids. In 20 states, public school enrollments are projected to fall by more than 10% by 2031. Almost all of these states with larger enrollment declines are blue states, with Hawaii, California, New Mexico, and New York leading the drops between 19% and 21%. … As school enrollments start to plummet, so will their funding.”
Mr. Greene added that as our population ages, the biggest strain on fiscal budgets will be health care funding and entitlements for older adults, and schools will start to see their budgets tighten or slashed to take care of those nearing the end of life rather than those who are just starting out.
But while blue states are facing a financial and societal cliff because of declining birthrates, that is not true nationwide.
Looking at CDC data for 2023, the Institute for Family Studies found that the 10 states with the highest fertility rates are red states, with South Dakota and Nebraska leading the way. Meanwhile, the 10 states with the lowest fertility rates are all blue states, with Oregon, Rhode Island and Vermont in the bottom three.
What is ironic about this is that while blue states are often deemed more family-friendly by the secular media and progressive politicians, many people in those states do not have children. As a recent Institute for Family Studies study found, those who do often flee to red states with lower taxes, cheaper housing, better jobs and less government intrusion into family decisions and life.
The other factor is religion. In states where religious faith is strong and encouraged, young couples are having children. That faith, which values every human life and gives one purpose beyond oneself, motivates young couples to have children and form strong families.
Conversely, in the more secular states, rather than practicing the sacrifice needed for parenting, young adults are either not marrying or are more likely after marrying to seek what they view as personal fulfillment. They see children as a detriment to their happiness or as a threat to the planet.
The faith and purpose of those having children is what will propel our nation from spiraling into a financial and cultural death knell and right the ship regarding the value we place on children and family — a death knell that is growing louder in those states where young populations are shrinking while older populations are exploding.
Thus, states with high fertility rates will continue to thrive as young people enter schools and workplaces, get married and have children. Meanwhile, states with low fertility rates will continue to shrivel and eventually succumb both socially and economically — like any institution or business that does not invest in future generations.
Perhaps no other factor will seal our future as a nation more than our current and future fertility rates. It is my hope that those who now say they do not have children or do not want them will come to understand that their future, as well as our nation’s, depends on their doing so. That is how they will continue to thrive rather than die.
• Timothy S. Goeglein is vice president of government and external relations at Focus on the Family.
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