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OPINION:
In the run-up to the 2016 presidential election, pollsters predicted that Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton would win comfortably.
The night of Nov. 8 came as a shock to many observers as Donald Trump emerged victorious. This year’s election evoked a deja vu as Mr. Trump enjoyed a decisive victory despite polls indicating a close fight and, possibly, a Democratic victory. The embarrassing night for forecasts questions how polling companies and media outlets model voter support. Perhaps even more importantly, it raises the question: If pollsters and media were wrong about Mr. Trump’s support level, maybe they are also wrong about Mr. Trump’s lack of support for Ukraine.
Unsurprisingly, in Europe, the outcome of the election was seen as a precondition for the outcome of the war in Ukraine. Mr. Trump has said that he would “end the war in 24 hours” and proceeded with suggesting a peace plan even before his reelection. That fueled panic in Ukraine and the rest of Europe, leading to the media being overfilled with articles causing distress. People in many European countries started wondering: Are we next to face Russian aggression? These Western fears, divisions, and the lack of confidence that the U.S. will take a leadership role and stand up to Russia plays directly into Vladimir Putin’s goals of sowing fear and chaos.
While we do not yet know what Mr. Trump will do regarding Ukraine, we know that he wishes to make America great again. It is hard to imagine a world in which losing Ukraine and giving in to Mr. Putin’s imperialist demands makes America — the country that has always assumed a leadership role in the world — great again. The Republican Party has criticized the Biden Administration for the abrupt withdrawal from Afghanistan in August of 2021 — a desperate scene marked by violence and hopelessness. The chaotic withdrawal weakened the U.S. international image as a major power, and handing Ukraine to Mr. Putin on a silver platter would hurt it even more.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was among the first leaders to talk to Mr. Trump postelection, as the call last Wednesday left Mr. Zelenskyy “somewhat reassured by what he heard from the president-elect.” Insiders reported that the call between him and the president-elect did not increase Mr. Zelenskyy’s anxiety about Mr. Trump’s victory. The initial conversation could lead to more substantial talks, considering Ukraine’s needs in a possible peace deal.
Therefore, rather than giving into fearmongering, Europe needs to focus on fixing the broken lines of communication with Mr. Trump’s camp. Right now, thoughts of what’s to come should not be marked by optimism or somberness but by determination — determination from Europe to improve its own capabilities and readiness and determination from Ukraine to continue fighting for its sovereignty.
After all, if the media hints that a potential peace plan is underway, it is correct, and the Trump Administration will have to ensure that such an agreement is favorable for the West. Being a man who closed thousands of business deals and negotiated historic Abraham Accords, Mr. Trump cannot allow the country that bombs children’s hospitals in Ukraine, takes American journalists hostage, and burns American flags to win. According to the most reliable polls from Russia, Levada, 73% of Russians have an anti-American sentiment, and 79% support Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The U.S. simply cannot reward Russia for this type of behavior by giving Ukraine to Mr. Putin. Regardless of the agreement to be made, Mr. Putin has proven time and time again that he is not to be trusted. The Kremlin’s ultimate goal is to control the whole of Ukraine, and Mr. Putin will not stop unless he is stopped. Countries in Russia’s proximity, such as Estonia, have furthered that if Ukraine backs down from the conflict, “Russia’s appetite will only grow.” We have recently witnessed the expansion of Russia’s axis of evil by closer military, technology and policy cooperation with Iran and North Korea. Seeing Russia take the upper hand would empower these rogue states to further challenge U.S. leadership.
Hence, making America great again does not include making Mr. Putin strong and victorious. The now iconic phrase “Let’s Make America Great Again” was first used by Ronald Reagan during his 1980 presidential campaign. Reagan also led America’s efforts against the Soviet Union during the Cold War. His narrative was simple: “Here’s my strategy on the Cold War: we win, they lose.” It is now time for the new Trump Administration to take a page from Reagan’s playbook and make sure that America wins while Russia loses.
• Monika Bickauskaite-Aleliune, a former global policy engagement officer at the Legatum Institute and former researcher at the German Marshall Fund, is currently public policy director at Key Elements Group.
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