What kind of president will Trump be?

OPINION:

• Correction: Ric Grenell was Senate-confirmed for the U.S. Ambassador to Germany and later served as Acting Director of National Intelligence

Notably absent from concerns about a second Trump presidency is the discussion of the successes of his first presidency.

Donald Trump nominated three solid Supreme Court justices, not a David Souter, William Brennan or Ketanji Brown Jackson. Through decisions like Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, West Virginia v. Environmental Protection Agency, and Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard, Justices Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett are advancing democracy by preventing unelected bureaucrats and judges from usurping legislative power and protecting all Americans from race discrimination.

The U.S. economy thrived during the Trump presidency before COVID-19, aided by Mr. Trump’s tax cuts, deregulation, and promotion of fossil fuel production. Cumulative inflation for the first three years of Mr. Trump’s presidency was 6%, about 2% per year, compared with cumulative inflation of 18% for President Biden’s first three years (Mr. Biden’s inflation peaked at over 9%, the highest level in 40 years). In Mr. Trump’s first three years, the S&P and Dow Jones indexes climbed 47% and 49%, respectively, gross domestic product grew at an annual rate of 2.5%, and the U.S. became a net energy exporter.

Employment increased, with Black and Hispanic labor participation rates reaching all-time highs and the overall unemployment rate hitting a 50-year low of 3.5%. Under Mr. Trump, wages rose sharply, and the poverty rate plummeted to an all-time low of 10.5%. On a percentage basis, earnings and net worth of blue-collar workers grew more quickly than those of the top 1%. Mortgage rates dropped to under 3%.

Far from amassing dictatorial powers, Mr. Trump eschewed unconstitutional overreaches of executive authority. No “I’ve got a pen and I’ve got a phone,” the Trump administration worked through Congress and followed proper administrative procedures to achieve policy changes while undoing President Barack Obama’s unconstitutional exercises of power by fiat. It was Mr. Biden, not Mr. Trump, who unilaterally attempted to cancel student debt, block mortgage foreclosures, hinder fossil fuel production, open the border, suppress free speech, impose a radical climate agenda, and de facto ban gasoline-powered cars and trucks.

The Trump presidency was the most peaceful since the Carter administration. Mr. Trump’s opening wide the U.S. fossil fuel spigot reduced worldwide oil and natural gas prices and thereby weakened Russia. The Trump presidency was the only presidency in the last four in which Russia did not invade a neighbor. Mr. Trump’s sending lethal defensive weapons to Ukraine, something Mr. Obama refused to do, certainly aided Ukraine’s resistance when Russia attacked — after Mr. Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal debacle and “minor incursion” gaffe.

Mr. Trump was arguably the most pro-Israel president since Harry Truman, moving the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and mediating the Abraham Accords. And the Trump administration sought to unwind terrible deals with Iran, which even now is using previously frozen U.S. dollars to support Russia in Ukraine, Hamas in Israel, and the Houthis as they attack U.S. and allied shipping. Mr. Trump recognized China as a major geopolitical threat.

The Trump administration depoliticized the Department of Justice and restored it as an evenhanded body that fairly promotes justice for all, regardless of political party. One need look no further than DOJ’s refusal to claim the 2020 election had been materially affected by fraud and compare its activities to those of the Biden DOJ to see how apolitical the Trump DOJ was.

The Trump administration took on some of Washington’s most intractable issues. It enacted the first major tax reform since 1986 and criminal justice reform. Mr. Trump faced the issue of immigration head-on, albeit with limited success because of opposition in Congress. The U.S. did not have an open border under Mr. Trump.

Mr. Trump appointed the first openly gay Cabinet secretary, Richard Grenell, who served as Acting Director of National Intelligence,  and openly gay federal judges. Ever the fighter, Mr. Trump exposed the mainstream media as often untrustworthy purveyors of falsehoods and spin.

COVID-19 was unique in modern times. On the plus side, as the pandemic progressed, the Trump administration avoided a national panic, kept necessary services and products available, promoted a public-private partnership that produced vaccines years earlier than the “experts” said was possible, and sought to protect religious liberty and other civil rights. Rather than becoming a dictator, Mr. Trump followed the Constitution by letting the states set local COVID-19 policy. On the negative side, Mr. Trump likely listened too much to the purported experts, and on his watch, the deep state and “experts” co-opted social media and suppressed free speech.

Some fear that Mr. Trump will be a lawless president. What they largely fear is that Mr. Trump will do unto his political opponents what they have done unto him — weaponizing law enforcement and administrative agencies to settle political scores. Most Americans rightly believe there are now two systems of justice — one for the Trumps of the world and one for Washington elites such as Hillary Clinton and the Bidens. Perhaps Mr. Trump will seek revenge rather than turn the other cheek, but if his first term is a guide, he may instead again depoliticize the Department of Justice and return evenhanded justice to our country.

There are many critics willing to rail against Mr. Trump, so I need not repeat their arguments here. Certainly, Mr. Trump is often his own worst enemy.

In sum, when trying to divine what sort of second presidency a former president will have, a good starting point is to examine the presidency he already had. If Mr. Trump is elected this fall, it will be because a majority of voters think they were better off under Mr. Trump than under Mr. Biden — and will be again. We shall see.

• John B. Daukas served as principal deputy and acting assistant attorney general for the Civil Rights Division of the Department of Justice from 2020 to 2021, and as a chief counsel on the Senate Judiciary Committee in 2023.