JOHANNESBURG — When the ruling African National Congress (ANC) was at its zenith, achieving nearly 70% of the vote in 2005, supporters had a bumper sticker with the party logo that read, “We will rule forever.”
As preliminary elections from Wednesday’s vote rolled in, South African voters decided they weren’t willing to wait that long.
The official count continues and final results are not expected until the weekend, but early returns made it all but certain that after 30 years in power, the ANC has lost the governing majority it has held since the end of the apartheid era. Late Thursday night, with more than one-fifth of the votes counted, projections put the party at no more than 45%, which would give it 180 of the 400 seats in Parliament.
“I think we are seeing a massive change in South African politics,” Susan Booysen, a political analyst who once taught at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, told national broadcaster SABC TV as the early returns rolled in.
Thousands of troops were posted across the country to support the police in case of violence, but voters waited patiently in queues, often snaking for several blocks. In a country known for its informality, many struck up conversations with those around them.
President Cyril Ramaphosa has thanked the people for a peaceful campaign and the orderly manner in which they participated in the election.
The next president will be chosen from the parties elected to Parliament. The party of national hero Nelson Mandela faces the prospect of sharing power in a coalition government or even going into opposition if its surging rivals can put together a government majority.
The opposition Democratic Alliance, led by John Steenhuisen, is projected to win 25% of the seats, an improvement from 2019 when he took control of the party.
“I think we are past the age when the color of your skin matters in South African politics,” Mr. Steenhuisen, who is White, told a preelection briefing in Johannesburg. “People want jobs and a better life, and they don’t care who delivers it.”
In this nation of 62 million, much of the urban population is out of work and there is little by way of welfare. Across all the opinion polls, unemployment was the chief concern for voters.
An administration and premier, equivalent to a U.S. state governor, for each of South Africa’s nine provinces were also elected on Wednesday. The ANC looks set to lose the sparsely populated Northern Cape province and the country’s second most populous province, KwaZulu Natal (KZN). Its numbers are also down in Gauteng, which includes Pretoria and the industrial hub of Johannesburg.
Corruption scandals have dogged the ANC in recent years, capped by the ouster of President Jacob Zuma in 2018. In January, Mr. Zuma founded his own party and appears to have pushed the ANC into second place in his home province of KZN. South Africa has no racial majority, but the Zulu people account for one-fourth of the population. Mr. Zuma, now 82, is their most senior politician.
Mr. Zuma’s new party is set to take at least 36 parliamentary seats, enough in coalition to give the ANC a slender majority. Still, the former president may be coy about granting power to those who shunned him.
The radical Economic Freedom Fighters appear to have lost a little support from the last vote in 2019, when they took 44 seats. Party chief Julius Malema is also a former ANC stalwart who founded the far-left EFF with a platform of nationalizing all land, banks and mines. Analysts here say the ANC, with its traditional pro-business policy, would find it difficult to work with the EFF.
More than 40 parties contested for seats in the national Parliament, and many of the candidates had their start in politics with the ANC. Some broke away before democracy in 1994, and many have followed since.
Despite its losses Wednesday, the ANC captured the largest share of votes. The problem now lies in finding allies among those who felt they no longer had a political home in the party but whose seats are needed to form a coalition.
Even then, there is no guarantee that such a marriage will last, and another election may be called before it is legally due in 2029.
Polls show that Mr. Ramaphosa is more popular than his party, but the billionaire who had a successful career as a union leader and businessman before assuming the presidency may have had enough. The problem is that while he does not face a multitude of charges like Mr. Zuma, his name has been linked to financial scandals.
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