A version of this story appeared in the daily Threat Status newsletter from The Washington Times. Click here to receive Threat Status delivered directly to your inbox each weekday.
A version of this story appeared in the daily Threat Status newsletter from The Washington Times. Click here to receive Threat Status delivered directly to your inbox each weekday.
President Biden and Kenyan President William Ruto need each other’s help.
The two men will meet at the White House on Thursday and hold a joint press conference ahead of a formal state dinner in the evening, the first such event for an African leader in more than 15 years.
Beyond the pomp and circumstance is a host of serious issues linking the two countries at a pivotal moment, including an American counterterrorism campaign in Africa dependent on Nairobi’s help and potential U.S. investment that could help Kenya crawl out from underneath a mountain of debt, much of it owed to China.
Analysts say one of the most important items on the agenda lies in America’s backyard. A multinational police force led by about 1,000 Kenyan personnel is set to arrive in Haiti in the coming days to restore order to a country wracked by gang violence and political chaos.
Mr. Ruto’s decision to send Kenyan personnel to Haiti has positioned his country at the center of a major foreign policy crisis in the shadow of U.S. shores. Specialists say it’s the type of mission that America may have handled itself in the past.
“President Ruto has embraced a very large task in helping to stabilize Haiti, something that would normally be done by a [United Nations] mission or a U.S.-led coalition. Taking on this mission is courageous and bold,” said Keith Mines, senior vice president of the Latin America program at the United States Institute of Peace.
“But there will be tough work ahead,” he told The Washington Times. “It will need massive support from the rest of the international community, especially the United States, for gang diversion programs and economic assistance and community-led development. It will also require a kind of ‘shock and awe’ upfront that puts the gangs back on their heels and demonstrates clearly their days of running the capital are over.”
The plan has met stiff resistance in Kenya, including court challenges seeking to block the deployment to Haiti, the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere.
Ariel Henry abruptly resigned in April as acting Haitian prime minister while widespread gang violence reached new heights.
Mr. Ruto has stood firm in his desire for Kenyan units to lead the multinational force. A successful mission, even on the margins, could greatly enhance Mr. Ruto’s and his nation’s broader geopolitical standing. The U.S. and Kenya still have disagreements over details of the mission, including how much financial and logistical support the U.S. will provide.
The administration has framed the state visit as a key diplomatic moment between the two nations, which are marking their 60th year of formal relations. U.S. officials said the agenda will also include trade and investment, technological innovation, climate change, clean energy, health and security.
“This is a partnership that is deep and broad,” said Jon Finer, White House principal deputy national security adviser.
The visit from Mr. Ruto offers Mr. Biden the chance to say he is making good on a promise to devote more time and attention to Africa than past presidents. Mr. Biden hosted nearly 50 leaders for the U.S.-Africa leaders summit in December 2022.
In some ways, the U.S. is on the defensive in Africa. The Pentagon is racing to withdraw all American personnel from Niger, which had been home to a key U.S. drone base from which counterterrorism missions were launched across the Sahel and other corners of the continent. Many counterterrorism analysts say the Sahel has become the world’s new epicenter of Islamic extremism. Affiliates of the Islamic State and al Qaeda and other terrorist groups are active there.
The exit from Niger will make the U.S. partnership with Kenya even more vital. The U.S. has personnel and air assets based at the Manda Bay military base in Kenya. The site plays a key role in the U.S. effort to combat the al-Shabab terrorist network in neighboring Somalia. Mr. Biden will seek to deepen the U.S.-Kenya counterterrorism partnership during his meetings with Mr. Ruto.
For Mr. Ruto, the meeting will offer the chance to push for greater U.S. financial investment in Kenya. The move could be attractive to Mr. Biden as he seeks to blunt the growing Chinese and Russian footprints on the continent.
Mr. Ruto specifically could seek help to escape a massive amount of Chinese debt. As of last year, the roughly $6.3 billion in Chinese loans to Kenya accounted for nearly two-thirds of Nairobi’s total foreign debt, according to information compiled by the British think tank Chatham House. Much of the debt stems from a major rail project in Kenya and other China-funded projects.
Analysts say Mr. Ruto will push for American investment as an alternative to borrowing more from Beijing. Critics say communist China’s lending practices, particularly to poor and developing countries, are predatory.
“For Ruto, trade and investment issues will be at the top of the agenda. Nairobi badly needs more external investment,” Meron Elias, an east and southern Africa analyst at the International Crisis Group, wrote in a recent analysis. “One of Ruto’s key campaign pledges was to turn around the country’s struggling economy and improve the lot of those at the bottom of the socioeconomic pyramid. He has struggled to fulfill that promise, instead imposing an ever-increasing number of taxes aimed at raising funds to pay off the country’s substantial sovereign debt.”
• This article is based in part on wire service reports.
• Ben Wolfgang can be reached at bwolfgang@washingtontimes.com.
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