BOOK REVIEW: ‘The Politics of Modelling’

OPINION:

My long career as an air pollution meteorologist largely consisted of mathematical modeling of the impact of industrial air contaminants on surrounding communities. Much of my practice included communicating the complex modeling results to the public. Now, post-retirement, as a science educator and risk communication trainer, I stress the importance of including assumptions and limitations in explaining models, especially models employed to inform public health and welfare decisions.

Two of the biggest issues impacting public health and welfare involve COVID-19 and climate change decisions. “The Politics of Modelling: Numbers Between Science and Policy,” edited by Andrea Saltelli & Monica Di Fiore, is a meticulous book that addresses the nuances of modeling to general scientific practice but focuses substantially on applications involving COVID-19 and climate change, in addition to economics. The book presents much constructive criticism of the role that modeling played and will continue to play on these issues.

The book inspired by a June 2020 Nature article titled “Five Ways to Ensure That Models Serve Society: A Manifesto.” The article was expanded into a book to further examine modeling because “models can easily be underexplored and overinterpreted.”

Although an academic treatment, “The Politics of Modelling” is a must-read for those whose lives are affected by modeling results — that’s all of us. The book states that its ambition is “to contribute to a reciprocal understanding between models and society.” And it serves as an aid to better comprehend the assumptions and limitations of models, modeling and modelers.

“The Politics of Modelling” is presented in three main sections: Meeting Models, The Rules and The Rules in Practice. But the book’s foreword on “Mathematical modeling as a critical cultural enterprise” and preface on “The sciences of modeling through” are not to be missed for their spot-on observations of modeling and splendid introductions to the book.

Overall, the book counsels that modelers “should not project more certainty than their models deserve; and politicians must not be allowed to offload accountability to models of their choosing.”

Expanding on this good advice, the book notes that challenges with the development and application of models include policymaking that “refers to values, not only facts and predictions. This shifts the argument substantially: even if we can imagine having perfectly predictive models with little margin for uncertainty, still the problem of finding agreement on values in policy-making would persist. Typically, a decision-maker has to find a balance between evidence and values, though the temptation of politicians is to delegate decisions to scientists, which is the easiest way to avoid delving into the traps of value systems. … In practice, it is impossible to rely exclusively on science, and all policy decisions are inevitably a mixture of evidence and values.”

Public trust in science and many of the tools of science, like modeling used in policy decisions, is at a historic low, so gaining trust will take some effort. Explaining the assumptions and acknowledging the limitations of models should help recover a good measure of public trust. And including more of the public in the model-building process can be beneficial.

“The Politics of Modelling” stresses wide-ranging participation that includes a variety of experts and laypeople. “Real, working dialogs between the community of experts and the ‘extended peer community’ are essential in improving [the] awareness on both sides.” Including numerous participants aids in transparency and increases perspective on effective model preparation and proper application of results. Without proper oversight, “mathematical modeling may more easily advance pretenses of neutrality.”

Educating the public on the finer points of modeling can be challenging. Regardless, modelers should be able to explain in straightforward language the thinking that went into model construction, how the model makes sense of the world, how the knowns and unknowns in the model were handled, how the model has been or will be validated (to the extent possible), and how the results should be interpreted. “The Politics of Modelling” is a tremendous aid in the preparation of successful public communication on this complex topic.

My decades of modeling operation and interpretation of results have been greatly expanded by the terrific perspective proffered in “The Politics of Modelling.”

• Anthony J. Sadar is an adjunct associate professor at Geneva College in Beaver Falls, Pennsylvania, and co-author of “Environmental Risk Communication: Principles and Practices for Industry” (CRC Press).

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THE POLITICS OF MODELLING: NUMBERS BETWEEN SCIENCE AND POLICY
Edited by Andrea Saltelli & Monica Di Fiore
Oxford University Press, Nov. 25, 2023, 272 pages, $110