OPINION:
For those of us old enough to remember Paul Ehrlich and his book “The Population Bomb,” we recall his rantings and ravings about how overpopulation was going to destroy our world. His writings became the justification for all sorts of draconian measures to reduce birthrates worldwide.
And like so many other speculations accepted as fact by the intelligentsia and the media, the exact opposite is happening as the lack of children threatens all aspects of our culture and our society must grapple with the coming crisis of underpopulation.
For instance, our nation’s current fertility rate stands at 54.5 births per 1.000 women, well below replacement level, a factor that will lead to ever-increasing pressure on programs such as Social Security, Medicare and pensions, with not enough people paying into the system to cover the expenditures going out.
It is estimated that the Social Security trust fund, which relies on having enough younger workers paying into it in order to pay for the benefits of those retiring will run dry by 2034, resulting in retirees having their benefits cut by at least 20%.
The Social Security Administration saw this coming in 2010 when it noted in its financial report that there was trouble ahead because “birth rates dropped from three to two children per woman.” Previously, there had been a 4-to-1 or 5-to-1 ratio between workers paying into the system and retirees taking money out. That ratio has dropped to almost 2-to-1.
Meanwhile, labor shortages and inflation will continue to be exacerbated as retirees leave the workforce and then are not enough young workers to replace them.
The same birth dearth now threatens our nation’s already-teetering educational system.
Last week, Sean Selai reported in The Washington Times that a new study done by the nonprofit Western Institute for Higher Education projects that the number of public and private high school graduates will fall by more than 500,000 — or 13% — by 2041. This will be especially true in states — particularly in the Far West and Northeast — where birthrates have been in serious decline.
The result will be the closing of hundreds of high schools and colleges and the elimination of thousands, if not millions, of jobs.
As Jay Greene of The Heritage Foundation recently wrote: “We are about to experience a baby bust on steroids. In twenty states, public school enrollments are projected to fall by more than 10 percent by 2031. Almost all of these states with larger enrollment declines are blue states, with Hawaii, California, New Mexico, and New York leading the drops between 19 and 21 percent. … As school enrollments start to plummet, so will their funding.”
But the problems do not stop at the three E’s: entitlements, economics and education.
Other studies have found that 1 in 3 millennials and Generation Z members either do not have or do not want to have children.
This is an alarming statistic, but it is based on the view, promoted by Mr. Ehrlich and others, that human beings are a burden on rather than a benefit to societal well-being.
It is also a shortsighted view because as these generations age, they will become increasingly isolated, lonely and lacking the caregiving that children provide their parents.
Thus, we are heading down the road to a demographic cliff with little fuel and no brakes to stop the societal, familial and economical consequences that await.
But there is one hope, and that is the members of society who reject the view that human beings are burden, and instead embrace that all life is a blessing: those who live lives based on their faith rather than human understanding.
In those states where religious faith is strong and encouraged, young couples are having children. It is that faith, which values every human life and gives one purpose beyond oneself, that motivates young couples to have children and form strong families.
That faith is a source of hope, because those families will instill this value and encourage future generations to reverse course and steer clear of the demographic cliff looming ahead. That course correction is what will save us from our present folly and hopefully keep our society — and its supporting institutions — strong for generations to come.
• Timothy S. Goeglein is vice president of Focus on the Family in Washington and the author of the new book “Stumbling Toward Utopia: How the 1960s Turned Into a National Nightmare and How to Revive the American Dream” (Fidelis Publishing).
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