OPINION:
It appears increasingly likely that Washington is about to face a reality check it hasn’t seen since 2017. The changes will come quickly and cut deeply. The consequence will be that Washington will be guided by drastically different personnel and policies.
Though a Republican capture of the White House is not a foregone conclusion, the reality is that with seven months to go until the election, President Biden finds himself in a lamentable situation. This reality is best synopsized by the fact that former President Donald Trump now leads in averages of polls in all seven swing states that will determine who will be the next president. And Mr. Trump doesn’t need to win them all to win the presidency.
Of course, much can change between now and the election. But will it? At this point, public perceptions of the candidates seem to be as solid as concrete, with voters deeply familiar with the policies and styles of both men. To the extent that voters change their perceptions over the next seven months, the most likely catalyst will be Mr. Biden’s declining cognitive state.
Americans are livid that nearly one-third of their buying power and savings have been wiped out by inflation, which Mr. Biden’s tax-borrow-and-spend budget proposals promise to continue. American prestige and power have been diminished around the world. Our southern border is a disaster. Mr. Biden seems to care more about illegal immigrants than the rights and prosperity of Americans. On cultural issues, can anyone doubt that Mr. Biden and his “woke” staff side with the transgender activists who shouted “We’re coming for your children” last summer in New York?
The Democrats’ chances of holding or improving their position in Congress are equally dubious. They hold their majority in the Senate by a single seat. And they must defend 23 Senate seats, with Republicans having to defend only 10, none of which is seriously vulnerable. And the closely divided House is likely to follow the result of the presidential race.
Taking all this into account, it’s within reason to expect Republicans to capture both the White House and Congress.
The next Trump presidency, however, will be radically different from his first administration. Mr. Trump has learned a lot of lessons. And they will be applied.
For starters, Mr. Trump will hit the ground running. He would be the first president since Grover Cleveland, who served two nonconsecutive terms, not to face a steep learning curve to perform the duties of chief executive. Mr. Trump’s Cabinet and senior advisers will consist of some familiar faces among the successes of his first term.
Still, he will be free of those who secretly opposed his agenda or dishonestly dragged their feet through the slog as they embedded in the deep state. The same will also be true among the 4,000 political appointments that a president’s personnel operation manages. No more swamp critters waiting around for the next big sinecure — just those who want to help Mr. Trump fulfill the mission of draining the swamp.
There will also be a greater sense of urgency. Mr. Trump will know that time is of the essence, with the midterms and lame-duck status just a few years away. Expect the president to move decisively and determinedly to implement his agenda.
A Republican-led Congress, too, will be different. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has announced he will not seek reelection to his leadership post. In the House, Speaker Mike Johnson’s quiet and composed effectiveness under the most trying circumstances is promising. Working through legislative vehicles that do not require 60 votes in the Senate, a Republican Congress could decisively help Mr. Trump get his team in place and enact lasting policies that will radically correct our nation’s course at home and abroad.
Mr. Trump will owe little to the establishment powers on either the right or left. The traditional policy ecosystem in Washington, which includes the media, think tanks, lobbying firms and the deep state itself, will have significantly diminished power. A new generation of leaders will fill key roles and make key decisions.
Change is coming, and it’s going to be radical. The challenges that lie before us demand nothing less.
• Chris Stewart represented Utah’s 2nd Congressional District from 2013 to 2023. He is managing partner of Skyline Capitol. Christian Whiton was a senior adviser in the George W. Bush and Trump administrations. He is Skyline Capitol’s senior adviser.
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