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OPINION:
A version of this story appeared in the daily Threat Status newsletter from The Washington Times. Click here to receive Threat Status delivered directly to your inbox each weekday.
In the 1980s, serving as a member of the House Intelligence and Appropriations committees, I worked closely with President Ronald Reagan and his administration to defeat the Soviet Union, “the evil empire.”
Unfortunately, ever since Reagan’s historic efforts brought peace to much of the world, Russia — the legal successor of the Soviet Union — was allowed to regroup and get stronger.
Annexing Crimea from Ukraine was the first sign of trouble to come. Russia was allowed to reassert its malign influence across most of the former Soviet space, preventing any meaningful political and economic reform in those countries and, in 2022, it launched an all-out war against Ukraine.
Another country that learned the lessons the hard way was Armenia. The world’s first Christian nation, it is in a tough neighborhood, bordering Turkey, its historical rival, and Azerbaijan, with whom Armenia has been engaged in conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region (Artsakh in Armenian).
Since Armenia gained independence in 1991, Russia has tried to keep Armenia in a diplomatic, economic and political chokehold, forcing it to remain part of a Russia-led alliance and its security arm, the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
Russia, however, has recently reneged on its treaty obligations to Armenia, leaving the country virtually defenseless against its stronger adversaries. In the aftermath of the Second Artsakh War in the fall of 2020 and the events that followed, Russia effectively sided with Azerbaijan, with whom Russia signed a wide-ranging treaty agreement two days before invading Ukraine in February 2022.
After the Russia-approved exodus of 120,000 Armenians from Artsakh last Sept. 19-20, which has been called ethnic cleansing by scholars and observers, at the time of this writing, the world is bracing for a new invasion (this time of Armenia’s own territory) by Azerbaijan.
Unsurprisingly, these events have led to a significant drop in Russia’s popularity among the Armenian population. Some of this disappointment and anger have resulted in a gradual increase in pro-Western sentiment. Armenia’s largest pro-Western political party, the National Democratic Alliance, or NDA, had a role to play in this.
Contrary to the position of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on Nagorno-Karabakh — which is seen as defeatist by the overwhelming majority of Armenia’s population and its vast diaspora — the NDA views the solution of the conflict within an internationally recognized legal framework. Before September, it had called for the replacement of Russian troops in Nagorno-Karabakh with a U.N.-mandated peacekeeping force and the resolution of the border issue based on the League of Nations’ decision of 1920 instead of Stalin’s decision of 1921. The NDA has also organized demonstrations against Russia’s military presence in Armenia.
The Livingston Group has helped the NDA carry its message to Washington. We worked with the congressional Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission and its co-chairs, Reps. Chris Smith, New Jersey Republican, and Jim McGovern, Massachusetts Democrat, both of whom I served in Congress with, to arrange a hearing titled “Safeguarding the People of Nagorno-Karabakh,” which took place June 21.
In the hearing, witnesses highlighted the gravity of the situation in Artsakh. One of the panelists, Columbia University’s David Phillips, stated: “There is a second Armenian genocide underway in Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) and Armenia proper being committed by the Erdogan and Aliyev regimes,” part of a “stated policy of Azerbaijan.”
Ambassador Sam Brownback, one of the witnesses at the hearing with whom I also served with in Congress, discussed the need for the U.S. to seize the opportunity to remove Armenia from the Russian orbit as well as provide Armenia with much-needed weapons and security assistance to help defend itself. Echoing the NDA’s long-standing policy, Mr. Brownback was resolute in his conclusion: “Armenia should be designated a major Non-NATO Ally of the U.S.”
The Biden administration’s approach, however, has been unhelpful and may have sent the wrong signals to the parties involved. Literally days prior to the final Azerbaijani military assault on Artsakh, on Sept. 14, Yuri Kim, the acting assistant secretary of state for European affairs, said that “the use of force will be unacceptable.”
While we were enthused by the commitments made by the administration when Samantha Power, U.N. Agency for International Development administrator, visited Armenia in the aftermath of the exodus in Artsakh, these were not supported by actions.
Now, the administration is forcing a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan on terms highly unfavorable for Armenia before internationally secured conditions are made for refugees to return to Nagorno-Karabakh. Doing so would be tantamount to the U.S. rewarding Azerbaijan for ethnic cleansing of Armenians, something that President Biden vowed to help avoid in his April 24, 2021, statement.
President Reagan had a foreign policy guided by “peace through strength.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the Biden administration would do well to heed this philosophy. The U.S. has a strong partner in the NDA, which would take Armenia out of the Russian orbit and make it a strong and reliable partner of the Western alliance. We cannot squander this opportunity.
• Robert L. Livingston is founding partner at The Livingston Group, a Washington-based government affairs firm. He served as a member of Congress from Louisiana for 22 years. He and his company are registered under the Foreign Agents Registration Act to represent the National Democratic Alliance in the United States.
Correction: An earlier version of this op-ed incorrectly quoted Yuri Kim, the State Department’s acting assistant secretary of state for European affairs. Ms. Kim said, “the use of force will be unacceptable.”
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